At 9 a.m. Eastern Time on September 4, 2026, oil stood at $96.90 per barrel, measured against the Brent benchmark (the differences between benchmarks are explained below). That figure represented a decline of $2.48 from the previous morning, while remaining roughly $30 higher than the price one year earlier. That year-over-year gap matters beyond trading screens: crude near $100 a barrel feeds into fuel, shipping, and utility costs across the economy, which is one reason policymakers and central banks watch energy markets closely when weighing inflation.

Will oil prices go up?

No one can forecast oil prices with detailed precision. A wide range of forces shapes the market, but ultimately the price comes down to supply and demand. When concerns about economic recession, war, or other large-scale disruptions intensify, oil's trajectory can shift quickly. Among the most consequential supply-side actors is OPEC+, the coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers including Russia, whose production decisions can tighten or loosen global supply. For readers tracking where the market may head, the main signposts to watch are OPEC+ meeting outcomes, U.S. drilling and inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, and macroeconomic indicators that shape demand expectations.

How oil prices translate into prices at the gas pump

Prices at the gasoline pump reflect more than the cost of crude oil. They also include refining and transportation costs, the taxes layered on top, and the markup local stations add to stay in business.

Because crude oil generally accounts for the majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price carry an outsized impact. When oil surges, pump prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gasoline prices often lag on the way down—a pattern sometimes described as "rockets and feathers."

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The United States maintains a stockpile of crude oil, known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, for use in emergencies. Its primary purpose is energy security in the event of a disaster, such as sanctions, severe storm damage, or even war. The reserve can also go a long way toward softening crippling price spikes during supply shocks.

It is not a long-term solution; rather, it is designed to provide temporary relief, helping consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running—including key industries, emergency services, and public transportation.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Oil and natural gas are both major sources of the energy consumed every day. For that reason, a significant change in oil prices can affect natural gas. If oil prices rise, for example, some industries may substitute natural gas for oil in certain segments of their operations where feasible, which increases demand for natural gas.

Historical performance of oil

Two benchmarks are typically used to gauge oil's performance:

• Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark for North America

Of the two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world's traded crude, and it is often the best way to track oil's historical performance. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Viewed through the Brent benchmark over several decades, oil has been anything but steady. Prices have spiked due to wars and supply cuts, and crashed amid global recessions and oversupply, known as a "glut." Notable examples include:

• The early 1970s brought the first major oil shock, when Middle East producers cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
• Prices fell in the mid-1980s amid lower demand and the entry of more non-OPEC oil producers into the industry.
• Prices spiked again in 2008 on rising global demand, then plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
• During the 2020 COVID lockdowns, oil demand collapsed like never before, sending prices below $20 per barrel.

In short, oil's historical performance has been anything but smooth. It has been heavily affected by wars, recessions, OPEC decisions, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.

Related energy coverage from Fortune

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• AI wants electricity now. The electric grid needs years to catch up
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• Moody's head of sustainable finance: Asia is embracing a 'pragmatic transition' on energy

Frequently asked questions

What determines the current price of oil? The price per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand—geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, and similar factors. In the U.S., prices also respond to how friendly an administration is toward drilling, since that can affect future supply. In 2025, for example, the Trump administration moved to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration's policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.

How often does the price of oil update? The price of oil changes constantly while the futures markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction in which participants agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the price of oil is moving.

What is shale? Shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas—essentially energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy it has, and the greater the supply, the more easily oil prices can be kept from spiking as sharply.

How does expensive oil affect everyday prices? When oil is expensive, everyday items tend to cost more. That effect is partly tied to direct energy costs such as heating and gas utilities, but it also reflects the logistics involved in bringing goods to consumers. Shipping costs, for instance, can raise grocery store prices, since it becomes more expensive to move products from warehouses and farms to the shelf.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.