Asia-Pacific Market Update: Oil Steady, Yen Firms as Traders Scale Back Fed Hike Bets
Key Takeaways
- •No oil tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, and the waterway normally carries about one-fifth of the oil consumed globally.
- •Iran said the strait would remain closed until Washington accepts defeat, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated Iran has not yet decided whether to resume talks and would set the conditions for any reopening.
- •President Trump said Americans should be prepared for somewhat higher gasoline prices and raised the possibility of eventually declaring the strait US territory.
- •Japan's economy grew 0.3% quarter on quarter in April-June, or 1.1% annualised, below forecasts of 0.5% and 2.0%, yet the yen still edged higher toward 159 per dollar.
- •Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 24.2% year on year in July, a fourth consecutive month above 20% growth, supported by demand for AI-linked electronics.

Oil prices traded in a narrow range on Monday as US-Iran talks remained stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued at a trickle. The waterway normally carries about a fifth of the oil consumed globally, including crude from Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, so even a partial halt bears on worldwide supply rather than just regional flows.
No tankers moved oil through the strait on Friday, according to tracking firms, and there was little sign that negotiations would resume as the new week began. Iran kept up its hard line over the weekend. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Saturday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington accepts what he described as defeat, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had not yet decided whether to resume talks with the US and would set the conditions for any reopening of the waterway. IRGC Political Deputy Yadollah Javani said Iran's actions so far have been defensive but could become offensive going forward.
President Trump, speaking at a rally on Friday, said Americans should be prepared to accept somewhat higher gasoline prices and raised the possibility of eventually declaring the strait US territory.
In Asia, Japan's economy grew 0.3% quarter on quarter in the April-to-June period, or 1.1% on an annualised basis, both below expectations. Economists had forecast 0.5% quarterly growth and 2.0% annualised growth. Weak capital expenditure and flat consumption weighed on domestic demand, a heavier drag because private consumption is the largest component of Japanese output, accounting for more than half of GDP.
Despite the weaker GDP print, the yen edged higher toward 159 per dollar, marking a second straight day of gains. Traders appeared to focus more on fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year than on the domestic data. The yen is especially sensitive to that outlook because shifts in Fed expectations change the interest-rate gap between dollar and yen assets. The move also came alongside broader dollar weakness after last week's data flow, including Friday's soft US retail sales report.
Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 24.2% year on year in July, just below the 25% forecast. That marked a fourth consecutive month of growth above 20%, supported by demand for AI-linked electronics even as non-electronics shipments remained weaker. The series is the city-state's main monthly gauge of trade, and the divergence points to how concentrated the export strength is in AI-related electronics demand.
Asia-Pacific equities were mixed in quiet, holiday-thinned trading. South Korean markets were closed for a public holiday, and investors were watching the approaching expiry of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire period.
China's July economic data, originally due earlier, is scheduled for release later in the day in a delayed afternoon slot. The monthly release typically covers retail sales, industrial output and fixed investment, providing the next reading on the region's largest economy.