Crude oil prices advanced on Thursday, July 30, 2026, after the United States resumed military strikes on Iran, reigniting concerns over potential supply disruptions. Brent crude traded above $92 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) held near $85, buoyed by a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent futures gained $1.48, or 1.6%, to settle at $92.22. WTI added 43 cents, or 0.5%, reaching $84.89. The gains built on a strong prior session in which both benchmarks had closed approximately 7% to 8% higher on Wednesday.

U.S. Strikes on Iran Restore Geopolitical Risk Premium

The United States launched renewed attacks on Iran following a temporary pause. The escalation reinstated a portion of the geopolitical risk premium that traders factor into crude oil prices when armed conflict threatens energy production facilities or critical transport routes.

U.S. stockpile data provided an additional layer of support. According to figures released by the Energy Information Administration, crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 million barrels in the week ended July 24. The decline far exceeded the 1.3 million-barrel drop that analysts had anticipated and brought commercial crude stocks to their lowest level since 2018. The steep drawdown tightened an already reduced supply cushion, leaving the market more vulnerable to any additional output shocks. (WSJ)

Maritime Traffic Through Key Chokepoints Holds Steady

Shipping data indicated that major regional waterways continued to operate despite the heightened tensions. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global daily oil consumption normally passes, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical link between the Gulf and the Mediterranean via the Red Sea and Suez Canal, remained functional. MarineTracking reported 53 confirmed vessel crossings through both waterways on July 28, comprising 12 Hormuz transits and 41 Bab el-Mandeb crossings.

Maritime traffic remains resilient. A total of 53 confirmed vessel crossings were recorded across the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 28 July, with 12 transits through Hormuz, an increase of 50% from the previous day, and 41 through Bab el-Mandeb, up 5%. Traffic through… pic.twitter.com/UByVEmxgRk

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) July 29, 2026

MarineTraffic on X

The sustained traffic served as a buffer against immediate fears of a supply stoppage. Nevertheless, unusual routing patterns and reduced vessel visibility underscored that risks remained elevated, keeping exporters cautious about potential disruptions along primary export corridors.

According to Reuters, a QatarEnergy-controlled LNG tanker transited the Iran-declared route through the Strait of Hormuz with the approval of Iranian officials — the first such passage in nearly three weeks. Separately, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which operates a major export route carrying Kazakh crude to the Black Sea, halted oil shipments after a drone attack on a tanker, as reported by Reuters.

Brent's Technical Outlook: Key Levels at $88 and $90

Technical charts indicated that Brent had rebounded substantially from its July lows. According to analysis shared by Axel Adler on X, Brent bottomed in the low $70s before rallying toward $100, pulling back slightly, and then recovering to approximately $91.60.

The $90 level serves as the first significant technical threshold. Prices holding above that mark could sustain the current rally and bring $95 and $100 into focus. Conversely, a failure to maintain levels above $88 would leave the $80 range vulnerable.

WTI supported above $80

According to charts shared by Solom on X, WTI rallied from a July low of roughly $68–$70, broke above $80, and reached approximately $85.72 by early Thursday. The $80 level now acts as key support. Sustaining above $80 could enable WTI to retest the $90 mark, while a breakdown below it would signal that the current rally is losing momentum. The chart configuration suggests a potential target of $110, though current momentum does not confirm that extended projection.

OPEC+ Supply Decision Looms

OPEC+ represents the next major policy event for oil markets. The coalition, which collectively accounts for roughly half of global crude production and commands an even larger share of seaborne exports, has the capacity to influence balances through coordinated output adjustments. Seven producers within the group are set to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day in August, according to an OPEC announcement. The coalition's next review of market dynamics is scheduled for August 2.

With Brent holding above $90 and WTI sustaining above $80, the trajectory of crude oil prices will largely depend on whether the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict disrupts physical oil shipments. Absent a tangible impact on supply chains, headline-driven volatility may prove insufficient to sustain a durable rally.