Former United States Secretary of State John Kerry has warned that Europe's failure to fully grasp the scale of its energy insecurities could create serious national security vulnerabilities, arguing that energy poses a greater danger to the continent than any military operation.

At NATO's summit in Ankara, Türkiye this month, member states reaffirmed their commitment to cohesion and cooperation amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. However, the summit agenda contained virtually no discussion of the energy crises precipitated by those conflicts, nor of the profound impact that energy insecurity has on Europe's capacity to defend itself.

Writing in a recent op-ed for Semafor, Kerry described energy insecurity as a fatal "exposed flank in Europe's rearmament." While NATO members pledged billions in defense spending and laid out detailed plans to strengthen the alliance's military posture, the summit declaration made only a single reference to energy security—a gap Kerry called a critical blind spot. The omission is notable given that defense industrial capacity—from ammunition plants to steel foundries—depends directly on affordable and reliable energy supplies, a linkage that has grown more visible as European governments pursue rearmament under the strain of elevated power costs.

"Over the past four years, the price of energy has done more damage to Europe than any kinetic weapon," Kerry wrote. "It has shuttered factories across Germany's industrial heartland. It has driven inflation that ultimately toppled governments. It has forced European taxpayers to spend roughly €650 billion shielding households and businesses from cost-of-living crises."

Europe has weathered three energy crises in the past four years. The first stemmed from Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The second arose from conflicts blocking Red Sea passage in 2023 and 2024. The third is the ongoing war in Iran involving the United States and Israel, which has led to the prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world's oil trade passed on a typical day in 2025.

Europe's apparent inability to draw lessons from these successive crises and implement preventive measures has provoked considerable frustration among both the public and senior officials. After Russia's 2022 invasion, the EU accelerated plans to diversify away from Russian fossil fuels, rapidly scaling up liquefied natural gas imports—largely from the United States—and fast-tracking renewable energy projects. Yet the recurrence of supply shocks through different chokepoints suggests those measures have not been sufficient to insulate the continent from volatility in global energy markets.

"We swore we'd learn. We promised things would change but here we are," a European diplomat described as "highly frustrated" was anonymously quoted by the BBC in March, as oil prices surged following the Strait's closure.

"Instead of concentrating on much-needed long-term plans—about how to make Europe more competitive in this increasingly volatile world, [European] prime ministers and presidents are now in a panic over [energy] prices, worried about angry voters and scrambling for short-term solutions," the diplomat continued. "Just like the crisis after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Different conflict. Same European divisions; same dilemmas over energy. We can't keep going round in these circles. Something's got to give."

Europe currently finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. The continent is enduring historic heat waves that strain energy systems, while also bracing for what is expected to be a long, cold winter. Natural gas reserves are alarmingly low at just over 50 percent capacity, with imports arriving at a trickle and no immediate relief in sight.

Addressing the situation will demand significant mutual support and cooperation to rebuild stockpiles and align geopolitical priorities. Yet NATO—an alliance with the political and economic weight well suited to such a task—appears unlikely to be part of the solution, a potentially critical missed opportunity with devastating consequences if Kerry's assessment proves accurate.

"Ankara proved that Europe can still summon real unity and real money when it takes a threat seriously. Energy has been used as a weapon against Europe twice in four years, and it will be again," Kerry warned. "Deterrence in this decade will be counted in megawatts as well as divisions, and Europe does not get unlimited winters to learn this lesson."

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com