Oil investors pushed crude prices higher by more than 1 percent on Tuesday, shrugging off assertions from Pakistan that a peace agreement between Iran and the United States was advancing. The market's upward move suggested participants were weighing concrete supply disruptions — from the Strait of Hormuz standoff to Ukrainian strikes on Russian export terminals — against unverified diplomatic optimism from a third-party intermediary.

Pakistan's defense minister, Khawaja Asif, told media that "things are shaping up again in favour of a peace arrangement or a deal." However, his remarks coincided with escalating rhetoric from both Tehran and Washington. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, demanded that the United States unfreeze Iranian funds held overseas as a precondition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump countered by insisting that Iran pay reparations to the United States for what he described as decades of violence against Western interests and its own people.

Mixed signals persisted regarding the volume of shipping traffic transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally carries roughly a fifth of global oil consumption. While much of the media coverage has emphasized that very few vessels are currently making the passage, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Tuesday that oil exports through the route had reached a seven-day moving average of 9 million barrels per day (bpd), crediting the U.S. military for enabling the flow. Wright added that when pipeline shipments are included, total oil flows from the Gulf region are averaging approximately 15 million bpd.

In separate developments, vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg indicated that Russia shipped 3.7 million bpd in the four weeks through August 9 — the country's lowest export level since May. The decline followed Ukrainian drone attacks that disrupted loading operations at key ports. Weekly shipments averaged just 3.2 million bpd in the most recent week, down from 3.5 million bpd the prior week. Novorossiysk, one of Russia's primary Black Sea export terminals, recently operated at roughly half its normal crude-loading capacity following attacks on tankers near the port. The simultaneous supply pressures from both the Middle East and the Black Sea have compounded concerns among traders watching whether global inventories can absorb losses from two major export regions at once.

Also on Tuesday, ship tracking data and information from sources within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated that the cartel's total output rose to 19.8 million bpd in July — the second consecutive monthly increase. The rise came as numerous Gulf producers restored partial output despite the Hormuz closure. Iraq and Kuwait led the July increase, with Iraq recording the largest monthly production gain among member states. The partial recovery in OPEC supply offered some offset to market tightness, though questions remained about whether the gains would be sustained amid the unresolved Hormuz disruption and the potential for further conflict-related outages.