The Commodities Feed: Oil Holds Gains as Persian Gulf Tensions Escalate

Oil & Companies News, 04/09/2026 — Source: ING

Energy – Iraq oil exports pick up in August

Oil prices remain elevated, with ICE Brent holding above US$95/bbl amid a pickup in hostilities between the US and Iran this week. The escalation has included Iran firing missiles into neighbouring Gulf countries. While the tensions are propping up crude, the rally may lose traction if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz keep moving smoothly. The stakes are high: the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints, with roughly a fifth of global oil consumption normally passing through it, so any disruption would affect buyers well beyond the Gulf itself.

According to reports, Iraq exported the highest amount of oil since the start of the US-Iran war in August, a total of 2.35m b/d. Of that, around 2.26m b/d was exported via southern routes — flows that would eventually need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia kept the official selling price for its flagship Arab Light unchanged at a $2/bbl discount for October loadings. Expectations had been for an increase, suggesting the market is not as tight as previously thought. OSP decisions are watched closely as an indication of how producers read physical demand in Asia, their key export market.

Refined product markets, however, remain significantly tight. The latest data from Insights Global shows that refined product inventories in the ARA region fell by 118kt week-on-week to 4.15mt, with the decline led by naphtha, gasoil and jet fuel. At 1.61mt, gasoil inventories are now seasonally below 2022 levels. Unless Persian Gulf and/or Russian diesel flows recover, the market is likely to tighten further heading into winter.

This tightness in middle distillates is not confined to Europe. US diesel cracks remain above $100/bbl, while US retail diesel prices have hit their highest level since mid-2022. Distillate strength feeds through to wider economies, as diesel powers freight, agriculture and construction, making it a closely watched input cost.

In Singapore, refined product stocks fell by 140k barrels over the week to 39m barrels. The decline was driven by light and middle distillates, which fell 837k barrels and 615k barrels respectively. Light distillate stocks now stand at 10.7m barrels, down from a peak of 19.5m barrels in February this year and at their lowest level since 2021.

In gas markets, spot Asian LNG traded at its highest levels since 2022. Amid this strength, the JKM-TTF spread widened again, making it less clear whether flexible cargoes should continue to be directed to Europe.

In the US, the natural gas market edged lower, with front-month Henry Hub futures down 1.45%. This came despite EIA storage data landing largely in line with expectations, showing a 30bcf build over the week against a forecast 31bcf increase. Storage nonetheless remains very comfortable, more than 5% above the 5-year average.

Metals – Central bank gold demand remains resilient

Central banks continued to add to gold reserves in July, reporting net purchases of 23 tonnes, according to World Gold Council data. Emerging market central banks remained the main buyers, led by China and Poland. China's central bank extended its buying streak to 21 consecutive months, adding 20 tonnes, while Poland bought a further 8 tonnes, taking its year-to-date purchases to 90 tonnes.

Central banks in the Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Bolivia also increased holdings. Russia was the largest seller, reducing reserves by 6 tonnes. Although central bank buying has slowed compared with a year ago, official sector demand continues to provide support for the gold market. Ongoing reserve diversification efforts among emerging economies should help sustain structural demand, even if purchases moderate from recent highs. This buying has been a defining feature of the gold market since 2022, when sweeping Western sanctions on Russia heightened interest among emerging market central banks in reducing reliance on the US dollar in reserve portfolios.

Gold prices rose more than 2% on Thursday following a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report on Wednesday. Comments from US Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller, suggesting he is open to keeping rates on hold at the next FOMC meeting assuming no surprises on the inflation front, provided an additional boost. The ADP report, while not an official government series, is widely followed as an early read on the labour market ahead of monthly payrolls data, with softer readings typically read as easing pressure on the Fed to keep policy restrictive.

Agriculture – Wheat falls on Russia-Ukraine peace hopes

CBOT wheat came under further pressure, with the December contract settling more than 2.5% lower on the day. The decline came as Russian President Vladimir Putin signalled potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, easing concerns over grain supplies from the Black Sea. Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, making developments in the conflict a key driver of market sentiment. The Black Sea has repeatedly swung wheat prices since Russia's 2022 invasion, including during episodes of disruption to Ukrainian port exports.

Vietnam's Statistics Office estimates August coffee exports at 132kt — a sharp jump of 56.3% year-on-year from 84.2kt a year earlier, supported by improving supply. This brings cumulative coffee exports to 1.33mt over the first eight months of the year, up 13.7% year-on-year. Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer, so its export flows are a key variable for the robusta market and for instant coffee manufacturers that rely on the bean.