New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: One-Year Inflation Expectations Ease to 3.6%
Key Takeaways
- •One-year inflation expectations declined to 3.6% in the latest survey, down from 3.7% the previous month but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
- •Three-year and five-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively, indicating stability in longer-term inflation outlook.
- •Consumers reported more favorable views on both current and expected personal financial conditions compared with the prior survey period.
- •Labor market expectations among surveyed households were mixed, showing no dominant directional shift.
- •The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations polls approximately 1,300 U.S. household heads monthly and serves as a key input for monetary policy deliberations alongside other consumer surveys.
New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: One-Year Inflation Expectations Ease to 3.6%
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing a modest decline in short-term inflation expectations among U.S. households.
Key Highlights
- One-year inflation expectations: 3.6%, down from 3.7% in the prior month
- Three-year inflation expectations: Unchanged at 3.3%
- Five-year inflation expectations: Unchanged at 3.0%
- Personal finances: Consumers reported improved views on both current and expected personal financial conditions
- Labor market expectations: Mixed, with no dominant directional shift
The survey results contained no major surprises relative to market expectations. While the one-year measure edged lower, it remains above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent inflation target. The stability of the three- and five-year measures, however, is consistent with the Fed's assessment that longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored—a key condition policymakers cite when evaluating the persistence of inflationary pressures.
About the Survey
The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations is a monthly, internet-based survey of U.S. household heads. Launched in June 2013, it uses a rotating panel design of approximately 1,300 respondents and covers consumer views on inflation, the labor market, household finance, and credit access. The Federal Reserve closely monitors the survey as an input to monetary policy deliberations, since well-anchored inflation expectations are considered central to achieving the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. The SCE is one of several consumer surveys—alongside the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers—that policymakers cross-reference when gauging household inflation sentiment.
The data was published on August 7, 2026.
Source: InvestingLive
