Nvidia stock has wavered in recent months and is underperforming the broader market. The shares are set to react to upcoming earnings from companies such as Oracle and Broadcom, as well as to Xi Jinping's visit to the United States.

Nvidia shares struggled and lagged the market in August, even after the company delivered strong financial results. NVDA was trading at $217, down nearly 6% from its highest point this month. The lagging performance has come even as Nvidia remains one of the most heavily weighted stocks in the S&P 500, meaning its trajectory carries outsized influence on broad market indexes. Several catalysts could drive the shares in September.

Key AI Earnings on Deck

NVDA stock pulled back sharply despite the company reporting strong results and raising its forward guidance. Revenue surged past $96 billion in the second quarter, well above the roughly $92 billion the company had previously guided. Management also lifted its outlook, signaling that third-quarter revenue would jump to $106 billion. That guidance excludes any potential Chinese business, meaning actual figures could come in higher than expected.

Attention now turns to earnings from some of the largest players in the artificial intelligence industry. Broadcom, the $1.75 trillion juggernaut, is scheduled to release its numbers on Tuesday this week. The results matter because of Broadcom's large partnership with OpenAI. Recently, OpenAI announced that its Jalapeno chip, developed in collaboration with Broadcom, outperformed Nvidia's Blackwell on some key metrics. The outcome is also relevant to the wider debate about custom silicon: major AI buyers have been designing their own accelerators as alternatives to Nvidia's GPUs, so results and commentary from Broadcom's custom chip business are watched as a read on that competitive shift.

Oracle, another important player, will follow with its results on Friday. Oracle has a long-standing relationship with Nvidia and is part of Project Stargate, the initiative seeking to spend $500 billion on US data centers. Its numbers are watched as a gauge of demand for AI data center capacity, since much of Nvidia's chip demand flows through cloud and infrastructure providers building out that capacity.

Micron, the third-biggest firm in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) industry, is another company to watch. It reports on September 30, offering more color on its business and the broader industry. HBM is a critical component stacked alongside AI accelerators, so Micron's results and commentary provide a supply-chain signal for the entire AI hardware complex.

Xi Jinping's US Visit

Another potential catalyst for Nvidia shares in September is Xi Jinping's upcoming trip to the United States — his first official visit to the country in years. He will seek to improve relations with the US, months after Trump visited China.

Nvidia is likely to feature in the visit, as the two leaders are expected to discuss the AI industry. In a recent statement, Nvidia said it has started shipping a small number of H200 chips to China, though management's guidance excludes these sales from its forecast. A deal allowing Nvidia to ship its most advanced chips to China would be a major catalyst for the company given the size of that market. US export controls have restricted Nvidia's advanced chip sales to China for years, making trade policy a recurring swing factor for the company's addressable market.

Fed Decision and US Macro Data

Nvidia stock will also respond to US macroeconomic events, including the upcoming nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report and consumer inflation data. These figures will inform the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. As a high-valuation growth stock, Nvidia is generally more sensitive to changes in rate expectations than the broader market, since higher rates tend to compress the value of future earnings.

Odds of a rate hike on September 15 have risen following last week's Jackson Hole Symposium. In his speech, Kevin Warsh noted that inflation remains elevated, which may warrant a rate hike — a move that would weigh on Nvidia.

Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows NVDA jumping to a high of $230 before pulling back to the current $218. The retreat comes as the stock attempts to fill the gap formed after its earnings report. NVDA has dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level, but it remains above key support at $214, its high from June and July.

With that, the stock will likely remain on edge in September. Key levels to watch are support at $200 and resistance at $236.