Nvidia (NVDA) shares climbed 1.6% to $207.98 in premarket trading on Monday, offering a measure of relief after a punishing October for the chipmaker. The stock dropped 10% over the month to $204.64, retreating from a record closing high of $239.24 reached early in the month.

The bounce comes despite a fresh warning from ICAP Technical Analysis, whose latest update is not friendly to bulls. Shortly after Nvidia notched that all-time closing high, the firm identified a “big, bearish, rising wedge” on the weekly chart — a pattern chartists widely view as a bearish reversal signal — and its concerns have since been borne out.

Support Line “Decisively Broken”

In a Sunday note, ICAP chief technical strategist Walter Zimmerman said a key weekly support line was “decisively broken last week.” That line was the level traders had been watching as a floor beneath the stock.

Zimmerman sees the next step down at $185.94. Beyond that, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement would put shares at $92.99. Fibonacci retracement levels are used by traders to gauge how deep a pullback may run before a trend resumes.

“For those who follow Nvidia as if it were a cult, that may seem absurdly low,” Zimmerman said. He noted that Nvidia last traded near $93 on April 7, 2025 — only 19 months ago. “What has changed in the last 19 months? Valuations went to the outer solar system,” he added.

One hope remains for the bulls: the stock needs a sustained reversal higher before it reaches $197.73.

Technical analysis is only one part of the story and leaves fundamentals out of the picture. Nvidia’s own recent results have been strong, but fears surrounding the AI boom have also weighed on technology stocks more broadly.

Nvidia’s 50-day moving average currently sits at $221.74, while its 200-day average is $204.24 — a level technicians often treat as the dividing line between long-term uptrends and downtrends. The October close of $204.64 left shares resting almost exactly on that 200-day line and roughly 8% below the 50-day. Over the past 12 months, the stock has traded in a range between $164.27 and $243.37.

Fundamentals Remain Strong

The company’s most recent earnings report, released August 26, showed revenue rising 105.9% year over year to $96.22 billion, topping the $92.27 billion estimate. Earnings per share came in at $2.22, beating the $2.09 consensus.

Nvidia also announced a $150 billion share buyback on September 28, covering up to 2.8% of its stock — an authorization that allows the company to repurchase its own shares, returning capital to shareholders as the outstanding count shrinks. The authorization was unveiled roughly a month after the earnings beat.

Institutions Trim, Insiders Sell

Central Bank & Trust Co. cut its Nvidia stake by 2.2% in the third quarter, selling 7,941 shares while retaining a holding of 359,128 shares worth about $82 million. Nvidia remains the fund’s largest position, accounting for 12.4% of its portfolio. Institutional investors collectively own 65.27% of the company.

Insiders sold 1.77 million shares worth roughly $399.5 million over the last quarter. Those sales included transactions by CFO Colette Kress and EVP Timothy Teter executed under pre-arranged trading plans — scheduled programs set up in advance that let executives sell shares at predetermined times regardless of subsequent news.

Wall Street Stays Bullish

Ratings remain firmly positive despite October’s slide. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its “buy” rating on October 21, while Wall Street Zen cut its rating from “strong-buy” to “buy” on October 24. In total, five analysts rate the stock Strong Buy, 49 rate it Buy, and one rates it Hold, with a consensus price target of $321.47 — a figure roughly 55% above Monday’s premarket level, a reminder of the gap between Wall Street’s fundamentals-driven outlook and ICAP’s chart-based warning.

Nvidia opened Monday’s session at $204.64 — matching where it finished October — according to MarketBeat, giving the company a market value of $4.93 trillion, among the largest valuations ever recorded for a publicly listed company. The stock had closed down 4.22% in its most recent session before the premarket bounce.