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Nvidia Stock: Four Key Catalysts to Watch This Week

Author: The Market Periodical·

Key Takeaways

  • •Nvidia shares have slid 13% from their October record high of $243 to roughly $210, entering correction territory as AI bubble concerns intensify.
  • •Intel reports quarterly earnings on October 29, and holds 214 million Intel shares valued at more than $18.7 billion, making it Intel's fourth-largest shareholder behind BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street.
  • •SpaceX confirmed a $40 billion debt raise and signaled that most proceeds will go toward acquiring Nvidia GPUs, with AI now its largest business at $7.56 billion, surpassing Starlink's $5.2 billion.
  • •Alphabet and Microsoft report results Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday, with Microsoft alone typically estimated to account for about 20% of Nvidia's total revenue, while their in-house chips such as Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium, and Microsoft's Maia emerge as competition.
  • •Technical analysis indicates NVDA is testing support near its 200-day EMA and an ascending trendline from March, with a possible rebound toward the $225 pivot unless a break below the trendline invalidates the bullish outlook.
Nvidia Stock: Four Key Catalysts to Watch This Week

Nvidia (NVDA) shares have fallen sharply this month as fears of an artificial intelligence bubble escalated, pushing the stock into a correction. After surging to a record high of $243 earlier in October, the stock has slumped 13% to its current level around $210. That weakness now faces a series of major tests. This week brings a packed calendar of events that could shape the stock's trajectory: Intel's quarterly earnings, a $40 billion debt raise by Elon Musk's SpaceX, and results from several of Nvidia's biggest customers. Together, the events touch each of the areas readers can use to frame the week: Nvidia's order book, its balance sheet, and the sentiment around AI hardware spending after the recent pullback. Here are the four catalysts in focus.

Intel Earnings Report Due October 29

Intel publishes its quarterly earnings on October 29, and the report carries particular significance for Nvidia. Intel shares remain in a bear market, having dropped 40% from their year-to-date high. Nvidia's exposure is substantial: the chipmaker took a large stake in Intel last year, stepping in when Intel's collapse seemed certain. Nvidia now holds 214 million Intel shares valued at more than $18.7 billion, making it Intel's fourth-biggest holder after BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street.

A strong quarter from Intel would likely support Nvidia's own performance, and it would also be read as a sign that the AI industry is seeing strong demand from customers. Timing matters as well: Nvidia is usually one of the last big technology companies to release its earnings, so results from Intel and other peers help shape expectations ahead of Nvidia's own report.

SpaceX Raised $40 Billion to Buy Nvidia Chips

The other major catalyst comes from Elon Musk's SpaceX, which confirmed that it raised $40 billion through debt financing, as reported by CNBC. In its statement, the company said it remains investment grade. SpaceX has hinted that most of the proceeds will go toward acquiring Nvidia GPUs as its AI business keeps expanding.

The company's most recent results showed that AI has overtaken Starlink to become its biggest business, generating $7.56 billion compared with Starlink's $5.2 billion. Nvidia, for its part, is one of SpaceX's largest shareholders, adding another link between the two companies that investors may watch closely this week. For now, the GPU plans remain just that — a hint — so any specifics on the size or timing of chip purchases would be the detail to watch as the financing moves from announcement to deployment.

Nvidia's Biggest Customers Report Their Numbers

Nvidia shares will also react to earnings from some of its largest clients. Alphabet and Microsoft release their results on Wednesday, while Amazon follows on Thursday. The reports come a week after Meta Platforms, another top Nvidia customer, published its numbers.

This week's lineup is significant because these companies are the biggest buyers of Nvidia chips; Microsoft alone is usually estimated to account for roughly 20% of Nvidia's total revenue. At the same time, these customers are evolving into Nvidia's biggest competitors. Some analysts believe Google's TPU chips will generate more than $40 billion in revenue next year, while Amazon's Tranium and Microsoft's Maia chips are also seeing strong performance. With revenue concentration and emerging competition landing on the same calls, the guidance and capital-spending commentary from these companies may matter as much as the headline numbers for anyone tracking Nvidia's demand outlook.

Technical Analysis: NVDA Tests Key Support

The daily chart shows NVDA under pressure in recent weeks, falling from a high of $243 earlier this month to the current $210. That level sits at a confluence of technical markers, coinciding with an ascending trendline that links the lowest points since March this year. The stock has also bottomed out slightly above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Strong Pivot Reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines tool.

According to the analysis, this suggests Nvidia stock could bounce back in the near term as investors buy the dip. If that happens, the stock is likely to rebound toward the Major S/R pivot point at $225. A move below the ascending trendline would invalidate the bullish outlook.

This article provides information, not financial advice. Stock investments carry market risks and the potential for losses, and readers should conduct independent research before investing.

This article is based on a report published by The Market Periodical on October 26.