The NFL has entered the legal battle over sports prediction markets, filing an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to take up New Jersey's challenge to a ruling that placed Kalshi's sports contracts beyond the reach of state gambling laws.

In the brief, filed Thursday, the league argued that sports event contracts on Kalshi fall outside federal derivatives law and should remain subject to state gambling oversight. It also accused the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and market operators of refusing safeguards the NFL has requested, including bans on easily manipulated wagers and a minimum trading age of 21. Should the Court let the ruling stand, the league said it would intensify its push for stronger protections from regulators and Congress ahead of the 2027 season. The filing's immediate target is the Court's decision on whether to hear the case at all.

A Split Among Appeals Courts

The dispute stems from a Third Circuit decision finding that Kalshi's sports event contracts qualify as "swaps" under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction, insulating them from state gambling statutes. The Sixth and Ninth Circuits have ruled the other way, creating a circuit split only the Supreme Court can resolve. In its filing, the league backed the position of those two courts. The justices' eventual answer would decide whether sports event contracts answer to the CFTC or to state gambling regulators.

Kalshi and rival prediction market platforms such as Polymarket have long faced pushback from state regulators. (Disclosure: Decrypt's parent company, Dastan, operates Myriad, a prediction market unavailable to U.S. residents.)

At the heart of the NFL's argument is the definition of a "swap" under the Dodd-Frank Act. The league contended the statute covers instruments that hedge existing risk, not bets that create new risk — meaning sports contracts belong under state gambling oversight rather than federal derivatives jurisdiction.

The League's Grievances

The brief laid out the NFL's concerns in detail. The league said it asked the CFTC and operators such as Kalshi to prohibit contracts that one person could easily manipulate, wagers involving injuries or officiating, and markets whose outcomes are knowable in advance, but said those requests were declined.

It further noted that 18-year-olds can trade on Kalshi, while most states require sports bettors to be at least 21, and that the CFTC employs just 543 people nationwide — suggesting the agency is understaffed to police these markets. Without league-specific lists of prohibited bettors, operators' "nominal insider-trading policies or prohibitions are paper tigers," the brief argued. Those comparisons underpin the league's core argument that oversight belongs with the states.

The financial stakes are considerable: NFL-related contracts accounted for $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded across prediction markets on the season's first Sunday — more than half the day's volume — according to the brief.

The league, represented by former U.S. Attorney General William Barr, is seeking a ruling before the 2027 season. It is not asking for prediction markets to disappear, though. If the justices side with the Third Circuit, the NFL said it would redouble efforts to persuade the CFTC, operators, and Congress to adopt stronger integrity and consumer protections by then.

Legal Observers Weigh In

Sports gaming attorney Daniel Wallach said the brief "meaningfully increases the chances of a cert grant" in a post on X.

It is extremely telling that the sports league which has most forcefully advocated for federal regulation is essentially saying "this ain't it." An important amicus brief that meaningfully increases the chances of a a cert grant.

— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) October 8, 2026

"It is extremely telling that the sports league which has most forcefully advocated for federal regulation is essentially saying 'this ain't it,'" he wrote on X. Wallach also noted that Gary Gensler, a former chair of both the CFTC and the SEC, and former Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., both of whom helped pass Dodd-Frank, also filed briefs backing New Jersey. A cert would be the first step toward the ruling the league wants before the 2027 season.

Rivals Take a Friendlier Approach

Other leagues have embraced prediction markets rather than fighting them. MLB named Polymarket its exclusive prediction market sponsor in March and signed an integrity agreement with the CFTC, while the NHL became the first major league to license its trademarks to prediction markets. Sportsbook operators DraftKings and FanDuel have launched prediction markets of their own. The divergent strategies make the justices' eventual answer a whole-industry question, one that would apply to leagues, sportsbooks, and trading platforms alike.

The stakes keep rising as prediction markets move further into the mainstream. Analysts at Bernstein see a $10 trillion opportunity in the sector, while Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev expects crypto contracts to eventually overtake sports.

Source: Decrypt