Nasdaq futures found a bid in early trading on Friday, but the rebound attempt remained fragile after a sweeping equity rout that knocked the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 down 6.36% — its worst single-day loss since March 2020, when markets worldwide were upended by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The selling went well beyond the tech-heavy index: the Dow fell 3.4%, the S&P 500 dropped 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 5.52%.

Mixed early signals ahead of jobs data

The early bounce in Nasdaq futures is a mixed signal. While the tech-heavy contract recovered ground, the Dow remained under pressure and European shares traded broadly lower heading into the U.S. and Canadian employment reports, both due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The twin reports are the day's main scheduled catalysts: payrolls releases are among the most market-moving data points on the calendar because they feed expectations for growth and interest rates, and with both arriving in a single 8:30 a.m. ET window, the session's scheduled risk is concentrated into one release. The 10-year Treasury yield was also higher, near 4.86%. If payrolls surprise, the key question is whether yields and the dollar confirm the initial move in stocks or whether that move fades. The tech selloff also carried into Asian trading, as covered in the investingLive Asia-Pacific news wrap.

US dollar higher across the majors

The dollar gained against every major counterpart, with the largest advances against the New Zealand dollar (+0.82%) and the Australian dollar (+0.75%). It was also higher against the Japanese yen (+0.40%), the euro (+0.39%), the British pound (+0.37%), the Canadian dollar (+0.30%) and the Swiss franc (+0.22%), leaving the Swiss franc as the best holdout against the greenback.

The dollar traded near session highs against the yen and near the strongest levels of the morning against the euro and sterling. The first test after the payrolls data is whether those extremes break and hold; a quick reversal back into the range would indicate that the initial move failed to attract follow-through. The morning technical video accompanying the briefing outlined the key levels for EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD given the dollar's run higher.

Currency ranges ahead of the data

Measured against 22-day average ranges — roughly a month of trading — most major currency pairs met or exceeded their averages, underscoring the volatility of the session:

• EURUSD: 1.1168–1.1234, 66 pips, or 105% of average
• USDJPY: 157.26–158.37, 111 pips, or 129% of average
• GBPUSD: 1.3382–1.3463, 81 pips, or 116% of average
• USDCHF: 0.8148–0.8189, 41 pips, or 77% of average
• USDCAD: 1.4009–1.4081, 72 pips, or 111% of average
• AUDUSD: 0.6863–0.6942, 79 pips, or 161% of average
• NZDUSD: 0.5541–0.5606, 65 pips, or 141% of average

USDCHF retained the most room relative to its normal range. AUDUSD and NZDUSD had already stretched the furthest, pressured by risk-off sentiment and prospects for lower growth. USDCAD had also moved past its average range before either jobs report landed. With both reports released at the same time, the larger move in USDCAD would come if surprises pull the two currencies in opposite directions: stronger U.S. data paired with weaker Canadian data would favor the upside, while the reverse would favor the downside.

Stocks, yields and commodities

At 8:00 a.m. ET, U.S. futures implied a split open in volatile trading:

• Dow: -570 points
• S&P 500: +11 points
• Nasdaq 100: +359 points

The selling continued across Europe, with Germany and the UK both down more than 2%:

• German DAX: -2.21%
• UK FTSE 100: -2.05%
• French CAC 40: -1.63%
• Spanish IBEX 35: -1.27%
• Italian FTSE MIB: -1.06%

U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve. While the 10-year yield remains well below the 5.36% high reached a few weeks ago, the bounce higher on the day pointed to some constraint on the downside:

• 2-year: 4.491%, up 1.37 basis points
• 5-year: 4.629%, up 2.09 basis points
• 10-year: 4.864%, up 2.65 basis points
• 30-year: 5.284%, up 3.26 basis points

In commodities, WTI crude rose $0.47 to $90.99 after trading between $89.07 and $92.53. Spot gold fell about 0.5% to near $4,068, while silver gained 0.58% to near $52.07. Copper was little changed near $6.27, and Bitcoin was nearly flat at $76,031.

North American calendar

8:30 a.m. ET — U.S. October jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 65K after 29K, with private payrolls seen at +64K after +46K and manufacturing payrolls at +5K after +9K. Unemployment is forecast to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month over month after 0.1%, with annual wage growth easing to 2.9% from 3.0%. The average workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 hours.

8:30 a.m. ET — Canada October jobs report. Employment is expected to rise 13.6K after a 68.3K decline, with unemployment forecast to hold at 6.5%. Last month's losses were split between full-time jobs (-35.4K) and part-time jobs (-32.9K), and a key focus is whether full-time employment participates in any rebound.

10:00 a.m. ET — University of Michigan preliminary November sentiment. The headline index is expected at 48.0, unchanged from October's final reading. Current conditions are seen at 48.0 versus 46.7, and expectations at 49.5 versus 48.8. The University of Michigan index is a widely followed, survey-based gauge of U.S. consumer confidence, drawing on households' assessments of current conditions and their forward expectations.

For the U.S. report, revisions and wages merit attention alongside the headline payroll figure. A payroll beat accompanied by softer wages could produce a different reaction in yields than a beat with hotter earnings — a distinction that matters both for the dollar and for a Nasdaq trying to recover from the prior day's selloff.

Technical outlook: EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

The morning technical analysis examined the three major currency pairs, outlining for each the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either buyers or sellers more control.

EURUSD — sellers have the edge near the session low. EURUSD traded at 1.1174, just six pips above the 1.1168 session low. That low is the first downside target, and a break that holds below it would give sellers more control. If the break fails, 1.1200 is the first upside barometer; a move back above that round number would put the prior close at 1.1218 in play, followed by the session high at 1.1234.

USDJPY — buyers are pressing 158.37. USDJPY traded at 158.29, eight pips below the session high at 158.37. Buyers hold the stronger hand above 158.00, giving them a nearby level to lean against. A break and hold above 158.37 would extend the move and put 158.50 in focus. Back below 158.00, the bias softens and the prior close at 157.66 becomes the next downside reference, followed by 157.26.

GBPUSD — the 1.3400 area is the first barometer. GBPUSD traded at 1.3399. Staying below 1.3400 keeps the focus on the 1.3382 session low, and a sustained break there would give sellers more control. If buyers reclaim and hold above 1.3400, the next upside references are the prior close at 1.3449 and the session high at 1.3463.