NewsStocksStrategy (MSTR) Stock Faces Fresh Test as Bitcoin Pulls Back From Recent Highs

Strategy (MSTR) Stock Faces Fresh Test as Bitcoin Pulls Back From Recent Highs

Author: Blockonomi·

Key Takeaways

  • •Strategy (MSTR) closed at $151.47 on October 8, down 1.24% and roughly 11% below its October 2 intraday high of $170.17, as Bitcoin retreated from recent highs.
  • •Bitcoin fell from about $87,200 on October 2 to near $81,700 by Thursday, with reported liquidations exceeding $166 million on October 7 amid unwinding leveraged positions.
  • •Strategy purchased 334 BTC for $28.7 million between October 1 and October 4, raising total holdings to 848,000 Bitcoin at an aggregate cost of $63.97 billion, or more than 4% of Bitcoin's fixed supply.
  • •MSTR's market-cap-to-net-asset-value ratio declined to 0.98 on October 8, down from about 1.2 in September, meaning the stock trades at roughly a 2% discount to the value of its Bitcoin reserves.
  • •Traders are tracking $80,000 as Bitcoin support and $147.37 as MSTR's Thursday low, with the stock showing a 30-day correlation of 0.88 and a beta of 2.28 to Bitcoin.
Strategy (MSTR) Stock Faces Fresh Test as Bitcoin Pulls Back From Recent Highs

Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) shares came under renewed selling pressure this week as Bitcoin retreated from its recent highs, erasing earlier gains in the stock and putting key technical levels for both assets back in focus. The company, formerly known as MicroStrategy, closed at $151.47 on October 8, down 1.24% after a two-day decline and nearly 11% below its October 2 intraday high. With its corporate treasury built around Bitcoin, Strategy's equity has tended to track the token's swings, often with greater intensity.

MSTR Gives Up Early-Week Gains

Strategy shares traded between $147.37 and $153.63 on Thursday, with about 23.7 million shares changing hands. The closing price stood nearly 11% below the October 2 intraday high of $170.17, and shares had also touched $168.73 on October 6 before pulling back.

Strategy began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020 under its former MicroStrategy name and has since grown into the largest publicly known corporate holder of the token, a structure that keeps its equity closely tied to the cryptocurrency's performance.

Bitcoin's Slide Sets the Tone

The retreat followed Bitcoin's failure to hold gains near $87,000. After reaching roughly $87,200 on October 2, the cryptocurrency fell below $84,000 on October 7 and finished Thursday near $81,700, according to market data.

Selling intensified as leveraged positions unwound across crypto exchanges, with reported Bitcoin liquidations exceeding $166 million on October 7. Liquidations occur when exchanges forcibly close leveraged trades as collateral loses value, a mechanism that can accelerate price declines over short horizons. Recent Blockonomi coverage tracked Bitcoin's decline toward $81,000 following rejection near $86,500. Bitcoin briefly approached $80,400 early Friday before recovering.

Strategy Adds 334 BTC, Lifts Reserves to 848,000

Against that backdrop, Strategy reported the purchase of 334 Bitcoin for $28.7 million between October 1 and October 4. An October 5 filing showed an average purchase price of $85,838.80 per coin, including fees. The buy came amid renewed buying during September and continued even as the token's price pulled back from its early-October peak.

The purchase raised the company's total reserves to 848,000 Bitcoin. Strategy said its holdings cost $63.97 billion in aggregate, an average of $75,440.70 per coin, representing more than 4% of Bitcoin's fixed supply. The company also estimated a $20.91 billion digital asset gain for the third quarter, a figure that reflects fair-value accounting, under which digital assets are marked to market each reporting period.

To finance the latest Bitcoin purchase, the company raised $15.7 million through share sales and used $13 million in cash. It also repurchased 740,634 preferred shares for $73.7 million, underscoring how the company's capital-markets operations directly feed its accumulation program.

Valuation Premium Over Bitcoin Holdings Narrows

MSTR stock also lost ground relative to the value of Strategy's Bitcoin reserves. Its market-cap-to-net-asset-value ratio stood at 0.98 on October 8, according to BTCorMSTR, down from roughly 1.2 during September's rally and indicating a discount of about 2% to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. A reading below 1.0 means the market is pricing the company at slightly less than the Bitcoin on its balance sheet.

The stock's recent price swings have exceeded Bitcoin's. Data through October 8 placed its 30-day Bitcoin correlation at 0.88 and its beta at 2.28, pointing to stronger daily movements. Correlation measures how closely two assets move together, while beta gauges magnitude; at 2.28, MSTR has tended to move more than twice as far as Bitcoin on a daily basis.

Key Levels in Focus

For Bitcoin, traders are tracking $80,000 as nearby support, with $86,500 to $87,200 acting as resistance. A separate Bitcoin support analysis identified lower levels should the cryptocurrency fail to recover.

For MSTR stock, $147.37 marks Thursday's low, while $168 to $170 covers the zone of recent highs. Further changes in Bitcoin's price influence both Strategy's share price and the market value of its holdings. Holdings updates arrive through regulatory filings, which will show whether the company added to its position during the pullback.

Source: Strategy (MSTR) Stock Faces Fresh Test After Bitcoin Price Selloff — Blockonomi