MSCI has finalized new rules for non-operating companies, a framework that could cost Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet their places in global equity indexes. The index provider will announce on November 11, 2026 which firms actually drop out.

MSCI calculates equity indexes that passive funds and exchange-traded funds track. When the provider adds or removes a stock, those funds buy or sell automatically. That mechanical link is why a pure methodology change can translate into real trading pressure for the stocks involved. Its Global Investable Market Indexes form the basis of the well-known MSCI World and ACWI families.

In October 2025, MSCI originally proposed excluding firms with at least 50% of their balance sheets in digital assets, a plan that would have affected 39 companies in total. In January 2026, however, the index provider dropped the plan and announced a broader consultation. That consultation ran from early August to late September 2026, and its documents included a simulation based on May 2026 data. The simulation flagged Strategy, Metaplanet and UK uranium holder Yellow Cake as potential deletions. Strategy and Metaplanet are digital asset treasury companies that hold cryptocurrencies as a core balance sheet position. Strategy holds 848,250 BTC, while Metaplanet holds around 44,000 BTC. That model — balance sheets built around crypto holdings rather than operating businesses — is precisely the profile the new methodology measures.

Two Stages Decide Whether a Company Stays in the Index

MSCI published the consultation results on Thursday, October 15, 2026, after the US market close. Implementation follows later in the November index review.

The framework works in two stages. First, a so-called Core Screen checks whether a company has material operating assets. If operating assets exceed 50% of total assets, the review ends there. A company that fails this test must instead measure up against five financial metrics, and it becomes ineligible if it fails four of the five.

MSCI had already set out this structure in its consultation announcement of September 3, 2026. The metrics include Operating Asset Intensity, Expense Intensity and a cash flow screen covering operating cash flow. Two more follow: Non-Operating Fair Value Intensity and Capital Dependence, meaning reliance on external financing.

The scope stands out. The rule covers non-operating companies together with passive investment vehicles such as funds and business development companies (BDCs), so crypto firms are only part of the group. Yellow Cake illustrates how broad the framework is: the UK company holds uranium rather than bitcoin and still appears in the simulation.

Meanwhile, MSCI is ending the interim rule tied to digital assets of 50% or more of total assets. Since January 2026, affected constituents could remain in the index, but MSCI did not increase their share count or Inclusion Factor, and new additions and segment migrations for these firms were likewise on hold. Going forward, the index provider will assess them like all other companies under the new methodology. As a result, the dividing line shifts from crypto exposure to a company's operating substance.

Buffers and Deadlines Push Exclusion to December

The framework does not provide for immediate exclusion. MSCI uses buffers that apply both to the metric thresholds and to the timing of additions and deletions, a mechanism intended to reduce turnover in its indexes. A new addition is ineligible if the company fails the criterion in either of its last two annual reporting periods, yet MSCI only removes existing constituents if they fail in both periods. The index provider can also draw on the latest interim financial statements, giving firms already in the index more leeway than candidates. Applied to Strategy, that means removal would require failing the metrics in both of its last two annual reporting periods, not just one.

The timeline is tight. On November 11, 2026, MSCI will publish the final list of affected companies. The changes take effect later, after the close on November 30, 2026, and thus from December 1, 2026. Only from that date would tracking funds begin to reflect any deletions in their portfolios. MSCI has not removed any firm so far, and decisions on individual names will come only with that list.

How wide the group will be also remains open. Besides Strategy and Metaplanet, the rule could also hit SharpLink, a company that holds Ethereum as its treasury reserve. In the May simulation, the firm appeared on a watch list rather than among the deletions.

What the MSCI Decision Means for Strategy

For Strategy, the main issue is passive capital flows. The company has spent a cumulative total of around USD 64 billion on its bitcoin. In the week leading up to the cutoff, it bought another 250 BTC for USD 21.5 million, a purchase documented in a filing with the SEC.

Strategy estimates that MSCI-linked funds hold around 13 million MSTR shares, about 3.1% of outstanding basic shares. That equals roughly 60% of the stock's average daily volume over the last 30 days. The May 2026 deletions provide a benchmark of sorts: for the firms that left the MSCI World at that time, the comparable figure was about two days of volume.

Older estimates put the risk in dollar terms. In 2025, JPMorgan projected potential outflows of up to USD 2.8 billion from MSCI-linked funds. If other index providers such as FTSE Russell followed suit, the bank put the figure at USD 8.8 billion. For all 39 firms on the earlier list, estimates of USD 10 to 15 billion in total forced selling circulated. Still, these figures relate to the old 50% rule, and whether they carry over to the new methodology is unclear. January 2026 showed how sensitive the market is: after MSCI dropped the first plan, MSTR shares rose about 6% in after-hours trading.

An exclusion itself would have limited consequences. The stock would remain listed on Nasdaq, and Strategy would not have to sell any bitcoin. The longer-term risk lies elsewhere: weaker demand for the stock would make it harder to raise the capital behind the company's bitcoin purchases. Moreover, neither S&P Dow Jones nor FTSE Russell has so far confirmed whether it will follow with similar rules.

Strategy Disputes the Basis of the Classification

Strategy had sharply criticized the consultation. In its response, the company called the proposal a pretext against digital asset treasuries and saw it as a rerun of the withdrawn 2025 plan. It also argued that the terms "operating" and "non-operating" are undefined and have no basis in US GAAP or IFRS. Strategy reports its bitcoin business as an operating segment under US GAAP and, according to the company, this aligns with discussions with SEC staff.

Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le similarly called the rule discriminatory toward treasury firms. In August 2026, the company summed up its position on X in a few words: "Digital assets are assets." Index providers should measure markets instead of deciding which assets may hold, it added.

Finally, in September, Strategy stated that the rule would have no material impact on its own business if adopted. However, it would deeply damage MSCI's reputation as a reliable and neutral index provider.