A cryptocurrency market crash now sits among the most likely economic shocks of the next 12 to 18 months, according to the newest assessment from Moody's Analytics, the economic research division of the ratings group Moody's Corporation.

Chief economist Mark Zandi published the firm's updated risk matrix on Monday, October 26, 2026. The assessment charts a range of potential disruptions to the economy and orders them by their estimated probability over the coming year and a half, and in this edition a sharp downturn in cryptocurrency markets is listed among the most probable scenarios. The placement is notable because it positions a potential digital-asset downturn alongside other macroeconomic disruptions in the firm's risk framework, rather than outside it.

Moody's Analytics serves as the economic analysis arm of Moody's Corporation, whose ratings unit, Moody's Investors Service, is one of the world's three major credit rating agencies alongside S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. Zandi, the division's long-serving chief economist, regularly publishes assessments ranking the principal risks facing the economy. Because the assessment comes from the research arm rather than the ratings unit, it functions as an economic outlook exercise rather than a credit rating action. Subsequent editions of the regularly published risk matrix will show whether the estimated probability assigned to a crypto downturn moves higher or lower over the outlook period.

This report was first published by COINOTAG on October 26, 2026: Moody's Analytics Ranks Crypto Crash Among Most Likely Economic Shocks for Next 18 Months