Monero Price Prediction November 2026: Can XMR Break $627 as Kraken Drops Its XMR Questionnaires?

Monero's price outlook for November 2026 remains bullish as long as XMR holds above $554.05, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) that needs to hold after October's gains. Heading into the new month, the privacy coin trades near $597.68 against a backdrop of three notable developments: Kraken's withdrawal of customer questionnaires, a confirmed data leak at swap service Wagyu.xyz, and continued testing of Monero's FCMP++ upgrade. The three sit on different layers of Monero's privacy picture — exchange records, swap-service data and on-chain design — while the technical levels below frame the month's possible paths.

XMR Technical Analysis: Can the $624 Channel Ceiling Give Way?

XMR clears its channel ceiling only on a daily close above $627 and keeps its uptrend while daily closes stay above the 50-day EMA at $554.05. The token changed hands at $597.68, down 0.93% on the day, in the upper half of an ascending channel drawn from the June low. The channel's upper line sits near $624.21 and its median line near $534.40.

Price has so far failed to hold above the upper line, posting wicks near $658 and $648 in late October and an intraday high of $638.73.

The 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs — at $586.12, $554.05, $506.54 and $454.36, respectively — are stacked in order beneath the price, which keeps the trend positive. XMR trades about 2% above the 20-day EMA and roughly 8% above the 50-day, so a dip to either would amount to a retest. Because the channel lines slope upward, the levels beneath the price rise through November.

On this setup, XMR looks more likely to trade between $554 and $627 in November than to hold above the channel ceiling. A daily close below $554.05 would put the channel's median line near $534 in play.

Monero Seasonality: How October Compares and What November Usually Brings

October 2026 was a good month for Monero, but historical data gives November a weaker outlook.

XMR is up 7.27% this October so far — the fifth-best of 13 Octobers in CryptoRank's data and the eighth positive one in the last nine years. The month's -2.81% historical average is skewed by 2014 and 2016, which delivered declines of 49.8% and 39.2%, respectively, making the +1.32% median the fairer benchmark. Measured against it, this October is solid but not unusual.

November's record is less encouraging. The +11.6% average rests on just two years — 2016 (+75.3%) and 2017 (+105.5%) — while the other ten Novembers average -4.18%. The median November return is -1.85%, and only 5 of 12 Novembers finished positive. In the eight years that followed a green October, November closed lower five times.

A median November would take XMR from $597.68 to about $587, almost exactly the 20-day EMA at $586.12. Seasonality therefore points to a retest of that average rather than a break lower. Reaching an average-year level near $667 would require a catalyst on the scale of 2016 or 2017, and none is currently in view. As a historical sample, these figures describe how past Novembers behaved rather than set a path for this one.

Wagyu Confirms a Data Leak Linking Swap Deposits to Monero Addresses

The Defiant reported on October 29 that Monero swap service Wagyu.xyz had confirmed three months of its data had leaked. Threat intelligence firm Hudson Rock identified 4,580 completed cross-chain-to-XMR orders in which a deposit transaction ID, a Monero receiving address and a client IP address appeared in the same row, including 1,011 Bitcoin-to-Monero orders. In total, it counted 38,628 order records and 10,139 distinct IP addresses covering July 18 to October 26. For the 1,011 Bitcoin-to-Monero orders, the deposit leg is already public on Bitcoin's transparent ledger — what the leak adds is the single-row pairing of that deposit's transaction ID with a Monero receiving address and a client IP address.

Wagyu's operator said on October 28 that the last three months of data had leaked, that no money was lost and that swaps were not affected. An October 27 listing on the WhiteArmor site, archived by RansomLook, demanded $5 million.

Hudson Rock has not independently authenticated the files, and its counts do not show how many people were affected, since one person can use several IP addresses and VPNs can place many users behind one. The exposed records sit at the swap service, and the analysis does not show a breach of Monero's cryptography or where XMR moves after it enters the network.

Kraken Drops Its XMR Customer Questionnaires and Keeps Monero Listed

the monero:native emails were us. they were wrong. here is what happened and what changed. what happened – clients who bought xmr with their own money and withdrew it got an email asking for employer, source of funds and what they planned to do with their coins – no rule… — Arjun Sethi (@arjunsethi) October 24, 2026

Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi said on October 24 that the exchange had withdrawn requests asking customers what they planned to do with XMR they bought or withdrew. He said the questions were not required and that Kraken will keep supporting XMR listing and withdrawals.

That does not apply everywhere, since Kraken's notice separately restricts Indian residents, with trading and withdrawals halted earlier this year.

Monero's FCMP++ Upgrade Moves Through Testing With No Mainnet Date

Monero developers released beta stressnet v3.1 on October 26, according to the project's GitHub release. It adds faster wallet scanning and denial-of-service protections and fixes an inflation vulnerability on the experimental network.

FCMP++ would replace the current ring of 16 outputs — the set of decoys a spend hides among — with proofs covering eligible outputs across the whole blockchain. The release is for testing only, and no mainnet launch date has been announced. Until a mainnet date is set, the ring-of-16 construction remains what the live chain uses — the baseline the upgrade is meant to replace.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for November

Bullish case — target $658: XMR holds the 50-day EMA at $554.05, closes above the channel's upper line near $624 and the R4 pivot at $627 (pivot points are levels derived from prior trading ranges), and opens the late-October wick high near $658, with the R5 pivot at $714 beyond it. A November closer to the +11.6% average than the -1.85% median would fit this path.

Bearish case — risk level $534 (channel median line): XMR closes below the 50-day EMA at $554.05 and slides toward the channel's median line near $534. A close below that level would put the R3 pivot area near $504 and the 100-day EMA at $506.54 in play, with the 200-day EMA at $454.36 beneath them.

FAQs

Is XMR bullish going into November?
XMR stays bullish above $554.05 and could move toward $627 and then $658 if it closes above the channel's upper line near $624. A daily close below $554.05 would put the channel's median line near $534 in play.

Is November a good month for Monero?
November has been mixed for Monero, with a median return of -1.85% and only 5 of 12 Novembers positive, according to CryptoRank data. The +11.6% average is lifted by 2016 (+75.3%) and 2017 (+105.5%).

Did the Wagyu leak break Monero's cryptography?
Reporting so far does not show that it did. The Defiant says Hudson Rock's analysis does not demonstrate a breach of Monero's cryptography, and the exposed records sit at the swap service Wagyu, where they link deposit transactions, Monero receiving addresses and client IP addresses.

When will FCMP++ launch on mainnet?
No mainnet date has been announced for FCMP++. Monero developers released beta stressnet v3.1 on October 26 for testing, and the release does not set a launch timeline.