Moderna Stock Jumps on Positive Cancer Vaccine Trial as Analysts Raise Targets
Key Takeaways
- •Intismeran autogene met its primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial and outperformed Keytruda alone in melanoma patients.
- •The study enrolled about 1,100 participants who had already had their melanomas surgically removed.
- •Moderna shares rose sharply on the news and traded near $154.94 on Tuesday, making the stock the top performer in the S&P 500 that day.
- •The vaccine is customized from each patient’s tumor, targets up to 34 neoantigens, and takes about six weeks to manufacture.
- •Analysts lifted price targets and noted that nine additional solid-tumor trials are underway, while commercialization could be possible in 2027 if the program continues to progress.
Moderna stock climbed more than 14% after its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, met its primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial.
The study found that intismeran, when combined with Merck's Keytruda, helped melanoma patients remain cancer-free longer than treatment with Keytruda alone. Analysts and investors viewed the result as a major milestone for the program, which is being developed by Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) in partnership with Merck. Keytruda is Merck's best-selling drug and one of the top-selling medicines in the world, and the trial design pairs the new vaccine with it rather than replacing it.
Moderna shares were trading around $154.94 on Tuesday, up nearly 12% on the session, making the stock the top performer in the S&P 500 that day. The latest move followed last week's sharp rally after the Phase 3 readout, then a pullback tied to profit-taking, and now a rebound.
The trial result is the first positive late-stage outcome for an mRNA cancer vaccine. The study included about 1,100 participants who had already undergone surgical removal of their melanomas. Intismeran is designed to target as many as 34 patient-specific neoantigens, which are abnormal proteins on cancer cells that help the immune system recognize and attack tumors.
Each vaccine dose is customized by sequencing a patient's removed tumor to identify unique mutations. The manufacturing process takes about six weeks from collecting the cell sample to delivering the finished vaccine. During that period, patients can begin Keytruda while their personalized treatment is being prepared. Moderna and Merck have been collaborating on the program since 2016.
Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Changes
Barclays analyst Eliana Merle raised Moderna's price target to $125 from $48 and kept an Equal Weight rating. She said she believes intismeran is more likely than not to move through the regulatory process.
Wolfe Research upgraded Moderna to Peer Perform from Underperform on Tuesday. Analyst Alexandria Hammond said many investors likely misunderstood what a cancer vaccine is, which may have contributed to last week's sharp stock reaction.
BofA Securities and William Blair also upgraded the stock after the trial release. Wolfe estimates unadjusted peak sales of $9.2 billion across four indications, including adjuvant melanoma, RCC, MIBC, and NSCLC, before Moderna's profit split with Merck.
Leerink Partners expects intismeran could generate annual sales in the low-single-digit billions by 2032. Merck has projected about $6 billion by 2035.
Valuation Remains a Key Question
Last Wednesday, both Moderna and Merck each added more than $40 billion in market value in a single day. Analysts have noted that if peak sales ultimately reach $10 billion, that could support roughly $40 billion in combined market value, suggesting some of the upside may already be reflected in current valuations.
Intismeran has not yet been proven in other cancer types. There are nine ongoing trials in solid tumors, including lung, kidney, and pancreas cancers. Analysts generally consider the melanoma results a positive sign for those studies, but outcomes are not guaranteed.
The stakes are high for Moderna beyond oncology. Revenue from its COVID vaccine has fallen sharply from pandemic-era levels, and the company has been working to demonstrate that its mRNA platform can produce a second commercial product.
If interim data continues to support the program, analysts see 2027 as a possible commercialization year. Moderna's 52-week high is $176.66.
On Tuesday, Wolfe Research and Argus also raised their price targets on Merck, citing the company's pipeline strength. Merck has been working to identify its next blockbuster ahead of the loss of exclusivity for Keytruda, which is expected to face biosimilar competition later this decade as its key patents expire.
