MMI Daily Iron Ore Index Report — August 4, 2026: DCE Futures Ease While Qingdao Port Spot Prices Rise
Key Takeaways
- •The DCE I2609 iron ore futures contract closed at 699.5 yuan per metric ton on August 4, 2026, representing a 0.43% decline from the prior session.
- •Spot prices at Qingdao Port rose between 4 and 9 yuan per metric ton compared to the previous trading day, with overall trading activity described as moderate.
- •Blast furnace maintenance impact on hot metal output decreased by 112,200 metric tons week-over-week during the August 1–7 period, signaling a modest short-term recovery in iron ore demand.
- •Projected maintenance-related hot metal output losses for August 8–14 are expected to increase by 51,600 metric tons week-over-week, potentially offsetting some of the recent demand recovery.
- •The MMI report anticipates short-term sideways movement in iron ore prices amid strengthened downside support and recovering demand.
MMI Daily Iron Ore Index Report — August 4, 2026
DCE iron ore futures softened on August 4, 2026, while spot prices at Qingdao Port posted modest gains against the broader Chinese iron ore and steelmaking market backdrop. The divergence between paper and physical markets underscores the importance of tracking both futures sentiment and port-level transactions, as each captures different time horizons of supply-demand dynamics.
Futures Market
The most-traded DCE I2609 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 699.5 yuan per metric ton, down 0.43% from the previous trading session. The DCE iron ore futures contract is a widely tracked benchmark for seaborne iron ore sentiment in China, the world's largest consumer of the steelmaking raw material. Because the contract reflects forward expectations for Chinese steelmaking appetite, its movements are closely watched by both domestic mill buyers and international mining majors pricing cargoes into China.
Spot Market at Qingdao Port
Spot prices at Qingdao Port — one of China's principal iron ore import hubs — rose by 4 to 9 yuan per metric ton compared with the prior trading day. Market participants reported that traders offered cargoes actively, while steel mills procured mainly on a need-to basis. Overall spot trading activity was described as moderate. Qingdao Port spot quotations serve as a reference price in many physical supply contracts, meaning even small movements can influence the realized prices of cargoes arriving at Chinese ports in subsequent weeks.
Supply and Demand Fundamentals
On the fundamental side, iron ore demand registered a slight short-term recovery. According to statistics from SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), the impact on hot metal output from blast furnace maintenance during the week of August 1–7 stood at 1.3736 million metric tons, a decrease of 112,200 metric tons week-over-week. For the following week (August 8–14), the projected impact on hot metal from blast furnace maintenance is expected to reach 1.4252 million metric tons, representing an increase of 51,600 metric tons week-over-week. Hot metal — the molten pig iron produced in blast furnaces — is the primary feedstock for China's basic oxygen steelmaking route, so weekly maintenance schedules are a leading indicator of near-term iron ore consumption. The projected uptick in maintenance-related output losses next week could offset some of the demand recovery observed in the current period.
Price Outlook
Amid the narrative of recovering demand, downside support for iron ore prices strengthened. In the short term, iron ore prices are likely to move sideways, according to the report. Market watchers typically look to the weekly resumption or idling of blast furnaces, port inventory levels, and any changes in Chinese steel mill profit margins as signals that could shift the near-term price trajectory.
Source: Metals Market Index (MMI). Full report available here.