Mizuho has lowered its price target on Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, to $43 from $45 while maintaining an Underperform rating on the shares, according to a research report published Monday. The revision reflects the bank's assessment that AI personal assistants could redirect USDC holders toward higher-yielding products and platforms, reducing the reserve revenue Circle earns on assets backing the stablecoin.

"We believe AI personal assistant engines pose a marked risk to Circle's medium-term revenue," the analysts wrote.

Circle's stock closed down 7% at $79.84 on Monday. Mizuho's new $43 target implies a decline of roughly 46% from that closing level. The distance between the two numbers reflects the nature of the bank's case: it rests not on Circle's current results but on how holders might respond as AI assistants begin recommending where to keep digital dollars.

How AI Agents Could Affect USDC

Mizuho estimated that broader adoption of AI agents could reduce USDC's market value by $4 billion to $9 billion, which would in turn lower the reserve revenue Circle collects on the assets supporting the stablecoin. The bank sized the medium-term risk to reserve revenue at 10% to 20%.

To test the thesis, Mizuho ran a simulation using AI agents, including one called Muse. The agents tended to recommend moving away from USDC and into FDIC-insured savings accounts, such as those offered by SoFi. Even when users expressed a preference to stay in crypto, the agents "seem to prefer other platforms" over holding USDC directly with Circle, according to the report.

As of the second quarter, about 17% of USDC in circulation sat on Circle's own platform, where holders earn no yield. Roughly 30% was held on Coinbase, with the remaining 53% spread across other platforms. That distribution underpins the thesis: reserve revenue tracks total USDC in circulation, while the 17% held on Circle's own platform pays holders nothing — the exact contrast with the FDIC-insured savings accounts the simulated agents favored.

Under a faster AI adoption scenario, Mizuho projects that about $7 billion could move into fiat products, while another $2 billion could shift into higher-yielding stablecoins. Together, those flows would shrink USDC's market cap by up to $9 billion and cut Circle's reserve revenue by 18% in that scenario.

Mizuho Lowers Its Forecasts

Incorporating the wider adoption assumption, the analysts cut their forecast for average USDC in circulation in 2027 to $101 billion from $108 billion. That change lowers projected reserve revenue by 5% to $4.1 billion, down from $4.3 billion. Mizuho also trimmed its adjusted EBITDA forecast by about 5% to $603 million from $635 million. The percentage changes are modest, but they add a new variable to the bank's Circle model: consumer-facing software that compares yields across products and directs balances toward them.

The lowered estimates come despite strong operating figures Circle reported earlier this month. The company said it generated about $1.4 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026 and retained roughly 7 cents in net profit for every dollar of revenue. The contrast frames the report's central tension: current operating results versus a modeled shift in holder behavior.

USDC settled more than $36 trillion in onchain transactions during the first half of the year, according to an Oct. 16 Circle blog post. By June, the stablecoin accounted for about 77% of all global stablecoin transaction volume, up from 60% a year earlier. Those figures form the baseline against which the bank's scenarios can be measured: any movement of USDC balances toward the modeled $4 billion to $9 billion outflow range, or a shift in the 17-30-53 platform split, would be the observable test of the thesis behind Monday's target cut.