The Commodities Feed: Middle East escalation pushes energy prices higher

in Oil & Companies News 02/09/2026

Energy – ICE gasoil crack hits new record highs

Brent moved back above $95/bbl, reaching its highest level in more than a month, as tensions in the Persian Gulf escalated further. After weekend strikes, Iran hit two oil tankers in the region yesterday. The US, meanwhile, carried out additional overnight strikes on Iranian targets, adding a fresh geopolitical risk premium to the market.

Recent developments have brought risks to regional oil supply back into sharp focus. Oil has continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite the stalemate between the US and Iran, but the rising tensions clearly increase the risk to crossings. The US energy secretary said 17m barrels of oil flowed through the strait on Monday, the highest volume since the conflict began. When bypass volumes are included, that suggests Persian Gulf oil flows are above pre-war levels. However, the numbers remain uncertain, and ship trackers have been estimating much more modest flows. It makes more sense to look at average flows over longer periods rather than a single day, given that flows move a lot from day to day.

Escalation in the Middle East also removes any expectation of a recovery in refined product flows, leaving markets tight. This is most visible in diesel markets, where the ICE gasoil crack traded to record highs yesterday of around $79/bbl, while the diesel crack in the US is trading well above $100/bbl. Timespreads also reflect this acute tightness, with the ICE gasoil Sep/Nov spread trading at a backwardation of $80/t. Given disruptions to Middle East and Russian diesel exports, and with little sign of an imminent recovery, middle distillate cracks are likely to remain highly elevated and volatile, especially as the market moves toward seasonally stronger demand. The global refining system has little slack to offset the disruptions currently being seen.

The latest API numbers showed US crude oil inventories fell by 2.6m barrels over the last week. The picture for refined products was more mixed, with gasoline inventories up 300k barrels while distillate stocks fell by 300k barrels. The move in distillate stocks will do little to ease concerns about tightness. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released today.

TTF gas prices traded to their highest level since 2023, with front-month futures breaking above EUR75/MWh in early morning trading today. Escalation in the Persian Gulf pushes back hopes of any recovery in LNG exports from the region. That remains a concern for Europe, given lower-than-usual storage levels. LNG netbacks favor sending spot LNG to Europe over Asia. But as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches, competition between the two regions is likely to increase, particularly if Qatari LNG remains largely absent from the market through year-end.

Metals – Gold slips as oil surge revives rate concerns

Gold prices eased to a two-week low, slipping below $4,300/oz, as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. That prompted markets to reassess the outlook for US interest rates. Rising energy costs could add to inflationary pressures and reduce the scope for near-term Federal Reserve easing, weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold.

The decline followed a strong August rally, with gold gaining nearly 10% and recording its biggest monthly increase since January. Safe-haven demand and growing concerns over US fiscal sustainability have continued to support investor interest in gold and other hard assets.

While near-term profit-taking could continue after gold’s recent run-up, broader fundamentals remain supportive. Expectations of lower rates over the medium term, central bank purchases and elevated geopolitical uncertainty should provide a floor for prices. Any pullbacks are likely to attract fresh buying interest.

Agriculture – Soybean hit multi-year high on Biofuel policy support and weather risks

CBOT soybean futures climbed to their highest level since December 2023, supported by a stronger-than-expected US renewable fuel exemption decision that improved the biofuel demand outlook. As a key biodiesel feedstock, soybean prices remain highly sensitive to renewable fuel policy developments. The EPA granted 1.76 billion compliance credits for 2025, the largest small-refinery exemption package since 2017 and well above the previously projected 990 million. The agency also committed to fully reallocating exempted volumes from 2025 into 2026 and 2027 blending mandates, effectively preserving biofuel demand.

Meanwhile, hot and dry weather across the US Midwest is expected to limit late-season pod development, raising concerns about soybean yields. The supportive policy backdrop also coincides with increased Chinese soybean purchases, reinforcing expectations that Beijing is advancing its trade commitments with Washington.

Source: ING