Michael Saylor Declares Bitcoin Bear Market Over, Predicts Return Above $100,000
Key Takeaways
- •Michael Saylor, co-founder and executive chairman of Strategy Inc., said on October 13, 2026, that Bitcoin's bear market has ended and forecast a return above $100,000.
- •He cited increasingly favorable U.S. regulatory conditions and expanding Bitcoin adoption by banks as the two main forces behind his bullish outlook.
- •Strategy holds 848,250 BTC as of October 11, 2026, approximately 4% of Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply, at an average acquisition cost of roughly $75,000 to $76,000 per coin.
- •Bitcoin bottomed just below $60,000 and has since recovered into the $80,000s, lifting Strategy's holdings back above their cost basis.
- •Prediction markets put the odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 by the end of 2026 at about 33%, a more cautious view than the year-end targets set by Saylor and Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick.
Michael Saylor has declared the bear market finished. The co-founder and executive chairman of Strategy Inc. told Bloomberg on October 13, 2026, that Bitcoin has moved out of its decline and into a new bull phase — and he expects the price to climb back above $100,000.
What Saylor Said, and Why Now
Saylor made the remarks during DC Fintech Week, a Washington, D.C. fintech policy conference — a fitting stage for the first of two forces he cited: increasingly favorable regulatory conditions in the United States. The second is growing adoption of Bitcoin by banks.
Bitcoin bottomed just below $60,000 before recovering into the $80,000s. Saylor treats that low as the cycle bottom — the point at which selling exhausted itself and the rebound began — and views the recovery as the start of Bitcoin's next upward leg. The call lands as his own company continues adding to its holdings.
Strategy Keeps Buying
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) is the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin. As of October 11, 2026, the company held 848,250 BTC, which works out to approximately 4% of Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply.
The company's most recent purchase added 250 BTC for about $21 million. Its average acquisition cost across the stack sits at approximately $75,000 to $76,000 per Bitcoin.
When Bitcoin slipped just below $60,000, it traded well beneath Strategy's average cost. With prices back in the $80,000s, the position sits above its cost basis again.
Strategy frames its holdings as “digital capital” — an asset base it can borrow against and build financial products around — and has been actively managing its preferred stock alongside its Bitcoin purchases.
Other Forecasters Land in a Similar Place
Saylor is not alone in his outlook. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered has set a year-end Bitcoin target around or above $100,000, even with the market's recent volatility.
Prediction markets, meanwhile, put the odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 by the end of 2026 at about 33% — below even odds, and a more cautious read than the year-end targets staked out by Saylor and Kendrick.
What This Means for Investors
With Strategy's purchase price at approximately $75,000 to $76,000, a slide back toward the recent low just below $60,000 would put the position underwater again, testing the “digital capital” model and the preferred stock structure built around it. At a scale of roughly 4% of Bitcoin's supply, that cost basis doubles as a concrete line for gauging where the largest institutional position stands at any given price.
Key watch items include whether Bitcoin holds above Strategy's cost basis, whether bank adoption keeps expanding, and whether prediction market odds drift up from about 33% — the level that currently makes a year-end return to $100,000 the less-than-even-odds outcome.
Source: CryptoBriefing
