NewsCryptoMichael Howell: Bitcoin as the Apex Liquidity Asset

Michael Howell: Bitcoin as the Apex Liquidity Asset

Author: Bitcoin Magazine·

Key Takeaways

  • •Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital and author of 'Capital Wars,' recommends holding gold and Bitcoin together in a volatility-weighted basket rather than choosing one over the other.
  • •He expects Bitcoin's allocation in such a basket to grow as the asset becomes more institutionalized, potentially reaching an even 50/50 split with gold.
  • •US approval of spot Bitcoin-traded funds in January 2024 accelerated institutionalization and brought the gold-versus-Bitcoin allocation question into mainstream portfolio discussions.
  • •Howell describes Bitcoin as the most liquidity-sensitive asset in the world and identifies $70,000 as a key support level.
  • •His thesis holds that a rolling wall of maturing government debt will leave policymakers little choice but to keep monetizing, framing gold and Bitcoin as core hedges against monetary inflation.
Michael Howell: Bitcoin as the Apex Liquidity Asset

Bitcoin Magazine has published a new video interview with liquidity analyst Michael Howell — the founder of research firm CrossBorder Capital and author of Capital Wars — who argues that investors do not have to choose between gold and Bitcoin. According to Howell, the two assets work best together: he recommends a basket weighted by volatility, one in which Bitcoin's share grows as the asset becomes more institutionalized — a mix that could someday reach 50/50. That institutionalization has accelerated since US regulators approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January 2024, broadening access for traditional investors and pulling the gold-versus-Bitcoin allocation question into mainstream portfolio discussions.

Howell describes Bitcoin as "the most liquidity sensitive asset on the planet by far." In his framework, liquidity means the global flow of money and credit across borders — the data stream CrossBorder Capital has tracked since the 1990s. He also identifies $70,000 as a key support level for Bitcoin and explains why a Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh — who served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011 — may keep liquidity conditions from slumping.

The discussion spans a broad set of macroeconomic themes, including:

  • 0:00 – Michael Howell on a "gangbusters" economy and rising bond yields
  • 1:18 – How the AI trade and the real economy are crowding out markets
  • 3:23 – What a flattening yield curve says about the liquidity cycle
  • 4:38 – The debt maturity wall and why governments will print "big time"
  • 5:42 – From Fed QE to Treasury QE: how the U.S. is monetizing its debt
  • 7:45 – China's bond market, the yuan and why Beijing has to print
  • 12:33 – Why governments can't cut spending: monetization is the name of the game
  • 14:25 – Gold vs. Bitcoin: building a monetary inflation hedge basket
  • 15:32 – Bitcoin vs. equities in a debt monetization world
  • 19:29 – Kevin Warsh, money market liquidity and Bitcoin's next catalyst

For readers new to Howell's work, the chapters double as a primer on his thesis: a rolling wall of maturing government debt that, in his view, leaves policymakers little choice but to keep monetizing — the backdrop in which he places gold and Bitcoin at the center of a monetary inflation hedge. The closing segment on money market liquidity and Federal Reserve leadership is where he frames Bitcoin's next catalyst, making those two threads the ones to watch from here.

The full interview is available on Bitcoin Magazine.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

This article first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.