Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) shares rose 0.2% to $743.01 on Tuesday, pushing the stock's gain since the September 8 launch of its AI assistant Muse to nearly 21%. The modest climb came as Wall Street digested two fresh analyst notes on the company's artificial intelligence strategy: a sharply higher price target from Wells Fargo that nonetheless cautions about a near-term earnings dip, and an upbeat update from Citi on early adoption of the new app. Taken together, the two notes frame the question now hanging over the stock: how long the gap persists between Meta's climbing AI infrastructure bill and the revenue that spending is supposed to eventually produce.

Wells Fargo Sees a 2027 "Trough" Before a 2028 Payoff

Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski raised his price target on Meta to $1,000 from $796 and kept an Overweight rating on the stock. The higher target, however, came with a near-term caveat: Gawrelski expects 2027 to be a "trough" year for Meta's earnings.

According to his note, the company's new AI assistant, Muse, is not expected to generate much revenue next year, while infrastructure costs keep climbing. Gawrelski also pointed to an estimated $5 billion hit from lost capacity resales, because Meta now needs that hardware to power its own AI products rather than renting it out to third parties.

His advice to investors was to look past 2027. He views 2028 as the year AI revenue really begins stacking on top of Meta's core advertising business. Gawrelski also argued that Wall Street's 2027 estimates remain too optimistic, and he expects a reset once the slower monetization timeline sinks in — meaning the consensus numbers themselves, not just the company's results, may need to move.

Wells Fargo drew a comparison between the Muse rollout and Meta's pivot to Reels in 2022, a shift that moved users from static posts toward short-form video and eventually paid off for the company. In that framing, the current spending stretch is the build-adoption-first chapter of a playbook Meta has run before, with monetization layered on once the new format matures.

Citi Points to Early Muse Momentum

Citi analyst Ronald Josey struck a more upbeat tone on Tuesday, reiterating a Buy rating and an $800 price target. Josey highlighted that Muse has pulled in more than 6.6 million downloads and has ranked as the most downloaded app for 16 straight days — a measure of consumer reach that, by itself, does not yet speak to monetization.

At scale, Citi expects Muse to eventually generate more than $27 billion in revenue, a long-run estimate that sits alongside, rather than contradicts Wells Fargo's caution about the next two years.

Despite the generally constructive analyst commentary, investors barely reacted, and shares changed little on the news.

Institutional Money Keeps Building

Beyond the analyst desks, institutional investors continued to accumulate Meta stock. Central Pacific Bank Trust Division raised its META stake by 65% last quarter, buying 2,817 additional shares to bring its total to 7,169 shares worth about $5.2 million. Several smaller funds, including Watchman Group and Penney Financial, also added to their positions. Institutional investors and hedge funds now collectively own nearly 80% of Meta's stock — a heavy concentration of professional money behind the name.

According to MarketBeat data, Meta's average analyst price target sits at $787.86. Targets range as high as $900, while the lowest sits at $700 — a spread that puts Wells Fargo's new $1,000 target above the entire tracked range and underscores how widely estimates diverge on Meta's AI timeline.

Insider activity, by contrast, has been one-directional. Chief Operating Officer Javier Olivan and CEO Mark Zuckerberg both sold shares in September under pre-set trading plans — arrangements scheduled well before the transactions occur. Insiders have sold nearly $99.9 million worth of stock over the past three months, and roughly 13.5% of the company remains insider-owned.

Recent Earnings and Dividend

Meta's most recent earnings report, released on July 29, showed revenue of $60.80 billion, beating consensus estimates of $60.22 billion and marking 28% year-over-year growth. Earnings per share came in at $6.18, missing the $7.19 consensus. The company also pays a quarterly dividend of $0.525 per share, equivalent to a yield of about 0.3%.

Shares opened Tuesday at $741.90, close to their 12-month high of $779.82. From here, the checkpoints that matter for the AI debate are clear: whether Muse's download streak holds, whether upcoming quarterly reports show the infrastructure cost curve Wells Fargo describes, and whether Wall Street's 2027 estimates drift toward the more cautious timeline Wells Fargo outlined before any 2028 payoff arrives.

Source: CoinCentral