University of Chicago political scientist John Mearsheimer issued a blunt assessment of US President Donald Trump's position on the Iran conflict this week, declaring that the United States has suffered a "devastating defeat" and that the president has no viable path to regaining leverage.

Speaking in an interview with Australian journalist Tom Switzer, Mearsheimer was pressed on why Trump appeared willing to tolerate an arrangement under which Iran would collect fees from transport ships in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway — through which roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption transits — has been almost entirely shut down since the United States and Israel commenced bombing campaigns against Iran in late February. A sustained closure of the strait carries profound implications for energy markets and the economies of Asia and Europe, which depend heavily on Gulf oil and liquefied natural gas shipments routed through the narrow channel.

"It's very simple... he has no choice," Mearsheimer said. "He lost the war. This is a devastating defeat for the United States. Can you tell me what the United States should do to regain leverage over Iran? I actually think you can't tell me because we have no solution."

The political scientist further argued that Trump's threats to intensify military operations against Iran lack credibility for two key reasons. "One, he's out of munitions," Mearsheimer said. "Number two, our Gulf allies have told him, in no uncertain terms, that is unacceptable because the Iranians have made it clear that if we escalate, they will escalate, and they will destroy oil facilities, desalination plants, and so forth."

Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, concurred with that assessment during the same discussion, stating that Iran now holds the dominant position. The era in which Iran could be coerced into compliance, he suggested, has passed.

"The period where you can basically pressure Iran into submission... I think is gone," Nasr said. He noted that Iran now appears "very comfortable demanding" concessions from the United States in exchange for reopening the strait — a reality he said much of the Washington foreign policy establishment has yet to grasp.

"In reality, Iran is not overplaying its hand," he added. "It's just playing its hand."

Daniel DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, echoed these conclusions in an analysis published Monday. He wrote that the United States has little choice but to accept Iran levying fees on ships transiting the strait. While conceding that such an outcome is far from ideal, DePetris argued it became inevitable when Trump launched the unprovoked war without authorization from the US Congress more than five months ago. The lack of a congressional authorization for the use of military force has drawn sustained legal and political scrutiny, with lawmakers across the political spectrum questioning the administration's authority to conduct sustained hostilities without explicit legislative approval.

"Trump's war handed Iran the perfect excuse to leverage its geography, and the Iranians didn't hesitate to do so," DePetris wrote. "Over time, the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to Iran's more aggressive posture toward its neighbors writ-large, has become something far more valuable: a strategic card Iran can play whenever Trump threatens to accelerate military operations."