McDonald's stock fell to a 52-week low of $259.85 this week, leaving the shares down roughly 16% over the past year and about 20% over the last six months. The decline has drawn attention from analysts and institutional investors who are reassessing their positions in the company.

In an effort to bring customers back, McDonald's is relaunching Spicy Chicken McNuggets nationwide on September 1 for a limited time. The product, which features cayenne and chili peppers in McDonald's signature tempura batter, has been off the menu since 2024. The timing is deliberate: U.S. customer traffic has been under pressure, and the company needs new reasons for people to visit.

Limited-time offers have long been a core part of McDonald's playbook — the returning McRib being the best-known example — because scarcity-driven menu items historically generate buzz without permanently diluting the menu. Spicy variants have been part of that strategy since Spicy Chicken McNuggets first launched in 2020, when they sold out within weeks, prompting a return later that year.

Q2 Numbers Tell the Story

Second-quarter U.S. comparable sales rose just 0.8%, and that increase came mostly from customers spending more per visit rather than from more visits. Comparable guest counts actually declined.

Globally, the picture was somewhat brighter. Global comparable sales rose 1.3%, revenue climbed 4%, and diluted earnings per share increased 6% to $3.32.

McDonald's digital business remains a bright spot. Loyalty-member systemwide sales topped $40 billion over the trailing 12 months, and 90-day active loyalty users grew 13% to nearly 220 million. That loyalty base is a key channel for promoting limited-time launches and app-exclusive deals directly to frequent customers.

Rivals Are Pushing Hard

Competition for chicken customers is intense. Burger King recently upgraded its chicken nuggets with new breading and more sauce options, while Wendy's is offering 10-piece nuggets for $1.99 through its app until September 27.

The aggressive deals reflect a broader value war across U.S. fast food, as chains from McDonald's to Taco Bell have leaned on bundled value meals and app discounts to court inflation-weary consumers. Chicken has become a particular battleground given its relatively low cost and broad appeal.

Whether limited-time products like Spicy McNuggets can drive traffic without forcing McDonald's into deeper discounting is the key question investors are watching.

On the institutional side, Benjamin Edwards Inc. trimmed its MCD position by 20.7% in Q2, selling 46,060 units. However, several other firms added to their positions during the same period, including GTS Securities, which grew its holding by 153.9%.

Insider activity is also under scrutiny. In June, insider Joseph Erlinger sold 5,252 units at an average price of $284.32, cutting his position by more than 40%. Erlinger serves as President of McDonald's USA, making the sale notable given the company's domestic traffic challenges.

Analyst price targets have been trending downward across the board. RBC Capital, Bernstein, and KeyBanc all lowered their targets, which now range from $286 to $305. Deutsche Bank moved in the other direction, raising its target to $345 with a Buy rating.

The average analyst price target currently stands at $322.96, backed by 15 Buy ratings, 11 Hold ratings, and one Strong Buy — a consensus of "Moderate Buy." How the September 1 relaunch performs early in the month, and what management signals about U.S. traffic trends in its next quarterly report, are the next concrete checkpoints for evaluating the turnaround effort.