Investors are bracing for turbulence as September unfolds — historically one of the weakest months for U.S. equities, a seasonal pattern that adds to the caution hanging over markets. The latest episode of the podcast DH Unplugged, titled “Strikes, Spikes, Hikes” and released September 1, paints a picture of a market turning “elephanty,” with hosts Andrew Horowitz and John C. Dvorak offering a skeptical take on the forces shaping the final stretch of 2026.

The episode zeroes in on renewed U.S. bombing of Iran, which has sent crude oil surging roughly 13% in two weeks to about $91.80. Diesel crack spreads are flashing inflation warnings, adding another layer of concern for consumers and policymakers alike — a reminder that energy costs feed directly into freight and goods prices, complicating any easing path for inflation. Bond yields are climbing at the same time, reflecting growing unease about fiscal policy and institutional trust.

Horowitz, a seasoned financial advisor, did not mince words when discussing the administration’s economic messaging. “The administration is the boy who cried wolf right now,” he said, adding that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has “gotten a little bit crazed trying to manipulate the markets.” Dvorak linked the bond market moves to a broader erosion of confidence, arguing that “it’s a series of very large trust factors.” He warned that tariff escalation echoing the Smoot-Hawley tariffs — the 1930 legislation widely associated with deepening the Great Depression — would signal that America no longer believes it can compete.

Amid the macro noise, corporate earnings offered both bright spots and cautionary tales. Dell blew past expectations with fiscal 2027 EPS guidance near $25.50, up from $18.99 previously, buoyed by a 40% data center share that ties its fortunes to the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout. Nvidia is reportedly pursuing Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, a deal that has stirred tensions between Jensen Huang and Sam Altman — the latest sign of consolidation pressure across the AI stack. On the downside, Dick’s Sporting Goods plunged roughly 30% as Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%, a warning about consumer spending resilience. Target faced a Halloween costume backlash over a clown outfit, underscoring the risks of brand missteps in a politically attentive consumer environment.

The hosts also tackled government equity stakes in Intel, MP Materials, and Trilogy Metals, along with the lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement — an unusual use of public capital in private chipmakers that raises precedent questions for future interventions. Horowitz, who disclosed a short position in Intel, questioned why Washington gets discounted shares that retail investors never see. Dvorak contrasted the U.S. approach with China’s state-owned enterprise model and highlighted GLM 5.3 Flash from Chinese lab Z.ai, reportedly trained without a single Nvidia chip, pointing to intensifying U.S.–China competition in AI development.

Geopolitical tensions remain high, with President Trump threatening that Iran will be “totally wiped out as a country” if it retaliates again — rhetoric that keeps the oil supply risk premium front and center. The hosts also touched on LEGO’s 21% first-half revenue jump and the growing scrutiny of the “baseball-card casino economy” by Japanese regulators. Looking ahead, Friday’s August payrolls report, along with ADP, JOLTS, and ISM data, will provide crucial signals on labor-market strength and manufacturing activity that markets will parse for direction on rates.

In their wide-ranging discussion, Horowitz and Dvorak underscored that currencies, equities, and private valuations all rest on one thing: trust. Their unfiltered commentary offers a lens on a market in flux as the final months of 2026 approach.

Source: Citybuzz