By Erika Mae P. Sinaking, Reporter

MANILA — President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. recorded his lowest trust and satisfaction ratings to date in OCTA Research's third-quarter survey, while Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio remained near her own record lows, according to results released on Wednesday.

Mr. Marcos' trust rating fell to 45% in September from 49% in July, and satisfaction with his performance slipped to 44% from 47%, the polling firm said in a statement. Both figures mark the lowest readings across the 16 national survey rounds OCTA has conducted since October 2022, reversing the gains recorded in March, when his trust and satisfaction ratings reached 54% and 55%, respectively. Trust and satisfaction trackers are among the most closely watched gauges of public sentiment toward national leaders, offering a periodic snapshot of how each official's standing shifts from one survey round to the next.

Distrust in the President climbed to 36% from 32% over the same period, while dissatisfaction with his performance rose to 36% from 33%.

"Survey results are just numbers that serve as reminders, but they do not reflect the actual work the President is doing for our fellow Filipinos," Palace Press Officer Clarissa A. Castro told reporters in a Viber message.

Ms. Castro suggested that farmers and patients who benefited from government programs, including the Zero-Balance Billing scheme in hospitals, may not have been captured in the survey. She also cited favorable figures for the administration's anti-hunger program.

Regional results showed the steepest declines for Mr. Marcos in Luzon outside Metro Manila, where trust fell by 9 percentage points to 54% from 63% in July, and satisfaction dropped five points to 55%. The area remains the only major region where he retains majority trust and satisfaction ratings. His trust rating held at 43% in the Visayas while satisfaction slipped to 42% from 45%; in Mindanao, trust stood at 28% and satisfaction at 27%.

By socioeconomic class, trust among class ABC respondents fell by 8 percentage points to 43%, and satisfaction declined 9 points to 44%. Trust among class E respondents, however, rose by 4 points to 59%.

Ms. Duterte's trust rating edged up to 48% from 47%, while satisfaction with her performance rose to 46% from 45%. OCTA said both changes were within the survey's margin of error and did not indicate a significant recovery. With the error band set at ±3 percentage points, movements of that size or smaller are treated as statistically insignificant rather than genuine swings in public opinion. Her trust and satisfaction ratings remain just 1 percentage point above their respective series lows recorded in July.

The Vice-President continued to draw strong support in Mindanao, where trust reached 94% and satisfaction stood at 88%. In the Visayas, she posted 66% trust and 60% satisfaction. Her ratings were markedly lower farther north: trust stood at 40% in the National Capital Region (NCR) and 25% in the rest of Luzon, while satisfaction reached 24% and 25%, respectively.

The regional figures underscore a sharply divided political map. Mr. Marcos led in Luzon outside Metro Manila with 54% trust compared with Ms. Duterte's 25%, while she dominated Mindanao at 94% against his 28%.

OCTA noted that neither official commands majority trust or satisfaction nationally, and that their ratings fall within the survey's margin of error of each other.

The next quarterly round of OCTA's tracker will show whether the September declines persist or reverse.

The nationwide face-to-face survey covered 1,200 adults from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.