Historian Heather Cox Richardson argues that the MAGA movement is fracturing and that President Donald Trump is growing visibly weaker by the day.

In her latest video, Richardson — a professor of history at Bowdoin College and the author of the widely read "Letters from an American" newsletter, which reaches hundreds of thousands of subscribers — outlined what she described as accumulating evidence that the president's political coalition is splintering.

"MAGA certainly seems to be coming apart in a lot of different ways," she said. "And what we're seeing come together is a new kind of larger democratic tent."

Richardson cited a series of warning signs. Two prominent Trump loyalists — MyPillow founder Mike Lindell and Representative Andy Ogles — recently lost their respective primaries despite Trump's backing. Lindell, she noted, was defeated by more than 10 percentage points. The losses are notable because Trump's endorsement has historically been a powerful asset in Republican primaries, and defeats of his backed candidates could signal softening influence over the party base.

Trump's job approval rating has fallen to 33 percent, Richardson said, and most Americans now tell pollsters they consider him dishonest, believe the country is out of control, and feel he is too old for the presidency. Approval ratings in the low 30s have typically been associated with significant electoral headwinds for an incumbent president's party.

Staff departures reinforce the same narrative, she argued. The White House counsel has departed, and press secretary Karoline Leavitt is stepping down. Richardson attributed these exits to aides becoming increasingly wary of being directed "to do things that might get them in trouble in the long term."

On the international stage, Richardson said Trump "looks completely weak." She pointed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly breaking with him and said Iran is "walking him like a puppy dog" as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapses. She also condemned the decoy-plane arrangement that left the press pool and aides aboard a jet facing an Iranian threat, calling it an act of "sheer cowardice."

At its core, Richardson argued, the problem stems from a broken promise: Trump campaigned in 2024 on the idea of a "permanent realignment" but proved unable to hold together a coalition that included white supremacists, Latino voters, and young people. Political scientists have long observed that ideologically diverse coalitions built around a single figure face inherent strains once the unifying prospect of power gives way to the compromises of governance.

"Trump was promising everything to everybody," she said, "and it was not going to be possible."

Richardson warned that Trump's allies are now racing to "grab as much as they can" ahead of the midterm elections, even as questions about his health continue to mount. With control of Congress at stake in the 2026 midterms, these dynamics are drawing heightened attention from both parties.