On Thursday, Aug. 6, three GOP senators — Alabama's Tommy Tuberville, Missouri's Josh Hawley and Indiana's Jim Banks — filed an amendment intended to protect state laws that prohibit "biological men" from competing in women's sports. Hawley said in a statement, "Biological men should never be allowed in women's sports or women's locker rooms. We've got to make sure state laws protecting women stand."

The amendment fits into a broader national pattern: more than 20 states have enacted laws restricting transgender athletes from competing on teams consistent with their gender identity, and Republican lawmakers at both the state and federal levels have repeatedly introduced similar measures since 2020, making the issue a recurring feature of the party's legislative and campaign agenda.

But conservative strategist and pollster Sarah Longwell argued that anti-transgender measures are not really about protecting female athletes. Instead, she said, they reflect Republican anxiety with the 2026 midterms less than three months away.

In a Wednesday, Aug. 12 post on X, formerly Twitter, Longwell wrote, "The biggest tell that MAGA knows they're losing on every issue, failing at governance, and generally losing public support? They suddenly are wall-to-wall on trans sports."

The Senate measure from Tuberville, Hawley and Banks is not the only recent Republican effort centered on transgender Americans and women's sports. In Arizona, GOP lawmakers are pushing Proposition 318, branded "Protect Girls Sports in Arizona," which would threaten schools and athletic associations with civil lawsuits if they allow transgender girls to compete on female teams.

Longwell said these anti-trans efforts show how worried Republicans are about the midterms. Her perspective carries particular weight given her career conducting focus groups and polling among Republican and swing voters, work that has documented shifting attitudes within the GOP base since Trump's rise.

Although Longwell is a prominent right-wing figure, she is part of the Never Trump camp and has become an unlikely ally of Democrats in recent years. She supported Joe Biden in 2020 and backed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris four years later in 2024.

Longwell is a founder of the conservative website The Bulwark and the founder of Republican Accountability (RA), formerly the Republican Accountability Project (RAP) and previously Republican Voters Against Trump (RVAT). Her organization has often been compared with The Lincoln Project, another group founded by Never Trump conservatives, although the two are separate despite shared ground and a mutual disdain for Trump.

In frequent appearances on MS NOW, formerly MSNBC, Longwell has argued that President Donald Trump and the far-right MAGA movement are inconsistent with the principles traditionally associated with Republicans and Libertarians.

Trump continues to post weak approval ratings in poll after poll. An Economist/YouGov poll released Monday, Aug. 10, found his approval at 33 percent. A Reuters poll released earlier in the month showed approval at 35 percent. Those numbers underscore the broader vulnerability Longwell described, as Republican incumbents and candidates must reconcile their records on economic and governance issues with a base energized by cultural flashpoints.