Kpler has moved its expected timeline for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz into 2027, increasing the risk that oil prices remain elevated for a prolonged period.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints, connecting Persian Gulf producers to global markets. Matt Smith, Kpler's director of commodity research, outlined the revised view on CNBC, saying there is "no end game in sight" after five months of conflict.

Why Kpler's Hormuz Reopening Timeline Has Shifted

The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June that reopened the strait, after which tanker traffic increased through early July. Smith said those flows have since slowed to a trickle.

At the same time, US forces have continued nightly strikes on Iranian military and maritime targets.

A second shipping chokepoint has also come under pressure. Saudi Arabia had been sending an additional 3.25 million barrels a day into the Red Sea through Bab el-Mandeb, but Smith said that route is now at risk. Bab el-Mandeb sits at the southern entrance to the Red Sea and is a key link in the Suez Canal trade route connecting Asian and Middle Eastern producers to European markets.

The Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping and struck two Saudi tankers two days ago, he said.

"And there doesn't seem like there's an end game in sight," Smith said. "We're looking at our expectations for the Strait of Hormuz reopening… it's 15 million barrels a day of crude that leaves through there. That is ground to a halt. And we're pushing that reopening into next year."

A new threat is emerging in one of the world's most important shipping lanes. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militia has declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, raising fears over oil supplies and global trade pic.twitter.com/LmyRDEXnfw — Reuters (@Reuters) July 23, 2026

Brent Rises as Refined Fuels Face Sharper Pressure

Smith said Brent crude has climbed about 40%, or roughly $30, over the past couple of weeks. The benchmark settled at $100.69 on Thursday, marking its first close above $100 since May 26.

Prices later reversed. Brent fell about 4% on Friday to close near $97 after reports that US-Iran talks had resumed.

Refined fuels have been hit harder than crude, according to Smith. He put diesel near $180 a barrel and gasoline near $140. Diesel and gasoline are the primary fuels for global freight transport and consumer driving, meaning sustained elevated prices in those products tend to feed through into shipping costs, logistics, and broader consumer inflation.

Smith said concerns he raised about jet fuel in May have been addressed. However, he said that relief came at the expense of diesel and gasoline, and he expects those pressures to worsen.