It is difficult to find a historical analogue for what has happened in the Kospi over the past 15 weeks.

Starting in April, the South Korean benchmark index rose 80% in just 10 weeks. That advance was then followed by a 40% decline, which has mostly erased the gains.

To put the scale of a 40% decline over 35 days into perspective:

• Covid: 33.9% over 33 days
• 1987: 33.5% over 100 days
• Trump’s tariff shock last year: 18.9% over 48 days

If the S&P 500 fell 40%, it would wipe out the past five years of gains.

That said, the bulls are not exactly without cause for comfort, because the 80% rally was only part of a tripling of the index over a year. The sharp reversals also highlight how concentrated and fast-moving Korean equity trading can be, with retail participation often amplifying both the climb and the decline.

Looking only at the past 15 weeks, the closest analogue is a striking one: the Nasdaq during the dot-com bust of 1999-2000. The index rose 88% from October 18, 1999 to March 10, 2000, then fell 34% in the five weeks to April 14.

The problem with the dot-com comparison is that the Nasdaq did not ultimately bottom until October 9, 2002 — a full two-and-a-half years later — and fell 78% peak to trough. For the Kospi, a similar decline would put it at 2064, only slightly below last April’s low of 2284. That outcome does not seem impossible, given the notorious leverage used by South Korean ants.