President Donald Trump was warned in May that if he endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate, he would end up having to bankroll the candidate to repair his image. Trump did not heed the warning, and now he faces a choice: give Paxton substantial financial backing or watch him lose.

On Monday, CNN's Dana Bash asked her panel about the failures of the Paxton campaign, and the panelists agreed that Paxton is in a difficult position unless he can raise more money. Paxton's fundraising struggles are such that his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, has been on the airwaves since June, while Paxton has not run advertising since the primary.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) made clear to the Texas Tribune last week that he had tried to warn Republicans this would happen. "Paxton's a poor campaigner," Cornyn said. "He's lazy and doesn't raise money. And he basically is not offering a very compelling case for his election. He's making this harder than it needs to be. But so be it — we are where we are." Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in a bruising primary after Trump backed the attorney general, has declined to endorse him since.

Paxton has also been caught taking international vacations in the middle of his campaign. He jet-setted to Iceland with his girlfriend, and the couple was spotted in London afterward (Yahoo News).

Paxton is assuming that MAGA Inc., the president's super PAC, will pour in the money he needs to succeed in the race, but so far Trump has held back on spending any funds from his groups.

Talarico, meanwhile, has spent the race introducing himself to voters — until Saturday, when he launched his first negative ad against Paxton, targeting his corruption (CNN). The corruption framing draws on a long public record: Paxton was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015, before taking office, and was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on allegations including bribery — he was acquitted by the state Senate and resolved the securities case with a pretrial agreement in 2024.

Paxton has played into the narrative himself, taking photos with voters while wearing a watch worth $41,000. Bash noted that after the Talarico campaign posted about the watch, Paxton was seen on the campaign trail without it.

Puck congressional correspondent Abby Livingston told CNN that in her career she has never heard both sides of a race saying "this race is Talarico's to lose." That framing is notable in a state where no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, the longest such streak in the nation.

"There's hope that the billionaire's not just MAGA, but, like, Texas billionaires who've been on vacation are ready to start engaging and spending. But it hasn't really happened yet," she said. "But I think the most important thing to think about this is 20 years ago, when Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who I once worked for, was running in a Democratic wave, she won by 27 points as a Republican. I think this is 5 percent Talarico talent, 5 percent environment, and 90 percent Republican self-inflicted problems."

Livingston, who once worked for Hutchison, explained that Paxton is not the only Republican in this position; he is simply "the most glaring one." She described it as a candidate quality issue, compounded by fundraising problems and Trump's redistricting project.

"Texas Republicans knew [it] was a bad idea a year ago and went along with it anyway," Livingston continued, noting it is "causing incredible problems throughout the state. And none of this had to happen."

Trump used his 2024 election turnout as the guide for redrawing Texas's district lines in an effort to eliminate Democratic seats. As AlterNet reported last week (AlterNet), the scheme is backfiring as Trump continues to lose the coalition that elected him. Texas seats have become more Democratic after the effort spread Democratic voters into more districts. That outcome is one of the major reasons Indiana rejected Trump's demands to redistrict there.