Kalshi Issues First Lifetime Ban for Republican Politician Over Insider Bets
Key Takeaways
- •Kalshi permanently banned George Santos from trading and fined him $71,356 over trades related to his State of the Union attendance in February 2026.
- •Laurie Buckhout received a three-year suspension and a $2,590 penalty for trading contracts on her own North Carolina congressional race, where she remains the Republican candidate.
- •Kalshi stated that Buckhout cooperated with its inquiry, but made no such statement regarding Santos, who dismissed the platform as an "unserious company."
- •Kalshi's rules prohibit any trader with direct or indirect influence over an event's outcome from trading contracts on that event.
- •The CFTC recently invoked emergency authority against New York's attempt to bar Kalshi from offering sports, elections, and other event contracts, asserting exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.

Update (Sept. 2, 4:00 pm UTC): This article has been updated to include a statement from Melinda Roth.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has taken disciplinary action against US House of Representatives candidate Laurie Buckhout and ousted Republican lawmaker George Santos for using insider information to trade event contracts, issuing one of the first lifetime bans the company has imposed since its launch in 2021. Kalshi operates as a regulated exchange under the oversight of the CFTC, which subjects it to compliance and disciplinary obligations that differ from those of offshore platforms.
In separate notices of settlement of disciplinary action announced on Friday, Kalshi's compliance department said it had permanently suspended Santos from trading on the platform and imposed a $71,356 penalty (notice.docx%20(1).pdf)). Buckhout received a three-year suspension and a $2,590 penalty.
Both restrictions came in response to investigations into Santos and Buckhout trading event contracts that could be manipulated by their own actions. According to the platform, Buckhout, running in North Carolina's 1st congressional district, "announced her candidacy for public office and was added as a market option for a contract on a North Carolina Congressional election," while Santos "engaged in trading activity in certain markets related to his attendance at the State of the Union address" in February 2026.
"If a Trader is a decision maker, either directly or indirectly, or has any influence, directly or indirectly, no matter the scale and importance of the influence, on the outcome of the Underlying event of any Contract, that Trader is prohibited from attempting to enter into any trade, either directly or indirectly, on the market in such Contracts," Kalshi's rules state.
The company's actions represent a significant crackdown at a time when prediction market platforms are under scrutiny by state and federal lawmakers over claims that many event contracts are susceptible to manipulation. President Donald Trump's teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, was fined $172,000 by federal regulators after trading event contracts on Kalshi related to Trump's speeches.
While Kalshi's compliance department reported that Buckhout "cooperated with the inquiry" and agreed to the three-year trading ban and penalty, the platform made no such statement in Santos' case suggesting the former US lawmaker had cooperated with its investigation.
"The permanent ban on George Santos trading on Kalshi makes sense given his lack of cooperation with authorities as they investigated his 'insider trading,'" Melinda Roth, a visiting professor of practice at New England Law in Boston, told Cointelegraph. "This is a perfect example of what my colleagues and I call 'status-based' traders, which is comprised of traders who can determine the outcome of the event contract."
Related: Trump teleprompter operator made $100K betting on Kalshi markets tied to speeches: ABC
Buckhout remains the Republican candidate for North Carolina's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections, according to The New York Times, while Santos, formerly a representative for New York's 3rd congressional district, was expelled from Congress in December 2023 amid fraud allegations.
In response to the settlement, Santos said in a Sunday X post that Kalshi was an "unserious company." Buckhout reportedly called her actions betting on her own congressional race a "dumb mistake."
As of Tuesday, Kalshi still listed event contracts related to the outcome of Buckhout's North Carolina race, giving Democratic incumbent Don Davis a 63% chance over the Republican's 41%. How platforms police participants who hold direct influence over the events underlying their markets is likely to remain a focal point as these cases accumulate.
CFTC taps emergency authority in fed-state prediction markets legal battle
Kalshi and other prediction market platforms like Polymarket face several lawsuits filed by individual US state gaming authorities over allegations that the companies are facilitating illegal bets on sporting events. At the same time, the sole commissioner and chair of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Michael Selig, claims the agency has "exclusive jurisdiction" over prediction markets and has vowed to take legal action against any state authority challenging this position.
Last month, the CFTC, in a rare move, invoked emergency authority opposing the state of New York's attempt to bar Kalshi from offering contracts tied to sports, elections and other events.