U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, now 76, has put an end to speculation about his future, ignoring hopes among MAGA Republicans that he will retire and thereby give President Donald Trump the chance to nominate a younger judge who, if confirmed, could serve on the High Court for the next 30 or 35 years. The seat-preservation logic behind those hopes is straightforward: Alito, a George W. Bush appointee who joined the Court in 2006, is already part of its 6-3 conservative supermajority, so replacing him with a Trump nominee would not shift the Court's balance — it would only extend how long that balance holds. And because justices hold their seats for life absent resignation or impeachment, the timing is entirely Alito's to make. Alito is sticking around, and according to Damon Root of the libertarian-oriented magazine Reason, the "circling vultures" of the far right are not happy about it.

Rumors of an "impending" Alito retirement had been swirling earlier this year. Writing in Reason, Root observes that if anyone still harbored "lingering hopes or fears" of those rumors coming true in 2026, "Alito himself has now put them to rest." "Obviously, I'm here for another term," the justice recently told The Wall Street Journal in an opinion essay defending his approach to constitutional interpretation against critics. Ironically, Root adds, the idea of Alito staying on a little longer is probably more popular right now among progressives than among conservatives.

It was conservatives, Root notes, who were lobbying for Alito to step down in the first place. "They have been desperate to avoid what we might call the Ruth Bader Ginsburg scenario, in which an aging justice remains on the bench so long that his or her party loses control of the White House or Senate, or both, and thus loses the ability to pick the justice's replacement," Root writes. "If the GOP loses control of the Senate in this year's midterm elections, those fears could be realized."

President Trump has registered weak approval ratings in one poll after another, and Democratic strategists are feeling optimistic about their chances of flipping the U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans under Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) hold only a small majority. Democrats realize that the U.S. Senate is a heavier lift for them. It is the Senate that matters most for the courts: since a 2017 rules change removed the 60-vote threshold for Supreme Court nominees, confirmation requires only a simple majority, so bare control of the chamber can decide a nomination. If Democrats do manage to flip the Senate on November 3 and a Democratic Senate majority is seated in January 2027, Trump would have a harder time getting Supreme Court nominees confirmed — especially someone who is far to the right.

Root recalls that progressives were calling for Justice Ginsburg's resignation "as early as 2011," when it remained to be seen whether then-President Barack Obama would win a second term. Ginsburg stayed on, died in September 2020, and it was Trump — with Republicans controlling both the White House and the Senate — who confirmed Amy Coney Barrett as her successor just weeks before that year's presidential election. Now, in 2026, Alito is facing similar pressure from MAGA Republicans.

"Ginsburg also heard the buzzing of the carrion-feeders and chose to tune out the sound," Root argues. "Perhaps this is the rare case in which Alito is truly in harmony with Ginsburg. Like her, he may be perfectly content to continue doing a job he enjoys for as long as he possibly can — which just happens to be one of the most important jobs in the country — all while ignoring the circling vultures and disappointing his supposed allies."