TLDR

• A federal rejected the joint CFTC and Gemini request to overturn their January 2025 settlement.
• Gemini's $5 million payment will not be refunded despite the regulator's reversal of its enforcement position.
• Judge Alvin Hellerstein ruled that later disclosures and shifts in federal crypto policy did not justify relief.
• The court's permanent injunction against false or misleading statements to the CFTC remains in effect.

The CFTC and Gemini have failed to overturn their $5 million settlement after a federal judge rejected their joint request on October 15. The ruling preserves a permanent court order against the cryptocurrency exchange even though the regulator has since reversed its enforcement position. The outcome makes clear that once a court approves a settlement, unwinding it takes more than a change of course at the agency that originally sought it.

US District Judge Alvin Hellerstein found that neither alleged problems with the investigation nor shifts in policy in Washington justified reopening the case. Gemini paid the penalty before seeking relief, and the money will not be returned.

Why the CFTC and Gemini sought relief

The CFTC sued Gemini in 2022 over statements the exchange made about a proposed Bitcoin futures contract. The court entered a $5 million settlement in January 2025, shortly before trial.

In May, the regulator joined Gemini's request to cancel the order. An internal review by the agency questioned a whistleblower's reliability and identified possible misuse of regulatory pressure. The CFTC said investigators withheld evidence from a commissioner before the lawsuit was filed.

The agency announced the request on X, saying the case would not meet its current standards. Former acting chair Caroline Pham described the regulator's existing authority over crypto trading under federal law.

Judge rejects claims of changed circumstances

Hellerstein said Gemini knew about weaknesses in the case before accepting the settlement. The judge found that documents obtained later did not change the facts as they existed when the parties settled.

The court also rejected the argument that President Donald Trump's crypto policies created a legal basis to cancel the order. Gemini accepted the agreement voluntarily after nearly three years of litigation. For companies that settle with federal regulators, the decision signals that such agreements can outlast reversals in enforcement priorities, since relief turns on whether the underlying facts were different — not on the current policy climate.

Injunction remains amid oversight changes

The ruling keeps Gemini under a permanent ban on making misleading statements to the CFTC or withholding important information from the agency. The regulator has proposed new rules for event contracts amid challenges from US states. That means Gemini's push into prediction markets continues while the exchange remains under a duty of candor to the same federal agency whose authority over event contracts is being tested by state-level disputes.

The original case covered borrowed trading funds, self-trading safeguards, fee rebates, and auction volumes. The consent order also bars public denials of the settlement findings, although the CFTC will not enforce that clause following its June policy change.

Gemini has since expanded into prediction markets through its Gemini Titan platform. Tyler Winklevoss wrote on X in February that the CFTC holds federal authority over these markets.

Kalshi's chief executive has also warned that US prediction markets could move offshore amid disputes over state rules. His comments came as courts and regulators weighed who can oversee event contracts. With the CFTC's proposed event contract rules still pending and state challenges unresolved, that jurisdictional question remains the backdrop against which exchanges building prediction market businesses — Gemini among them — will operate.