NewsStocksJPMorgan Nears Historic $1 Trillion Market Cap as Dimon's Two-Decade Playbook Pays Off

JPMorgan Nears Historic $1 Trillion Market Cap as Dimon's Two-Decade Playbook Pays Off

Author: Fortune Crypto·

Key Takeaways

  • JPMorgan Chase was valued at roughly $970 billion on Monday morning, placing it close to becoming the first bank in the world to achieve a $1 trillion market capitalization.
  • The bank's value has risen from $138 billion at the end of 2005, just before Jamie Dimon took over, and last month it posted the highest-ever quarterly profit by a U.S. bank.
  • Under Dimon, JPMorgan leveraged its fortress balance sheet to acquire Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual during the 2008 financial crisis and First Republic during the regional banking crisis 15 years later.
  • Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo estimates that two-thirds of JPMorgan's market-value gains over the past six years came from earnings per share doubling, and he says the bank could reach a $2 trillion valuation in seven to eight years, though he cautions the path is not guaranteed.
  • Succession remains a front-and-center issue, with co-presidents Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh viewed as front-runners after Marianne Lake dropped out, while investors have long applied a 10% to 15% 'Jamie premium' to the bank's shares.
JPMorgan Nears Historic $1 Trillion Market Cap as Dimon's Two-Decade Playbook Pays Off

JPMorgan Chase is closing in on a milestone that no bank has ever reached.

The financial giant—the largest U.S. bank by assets—was worth roughly $970 billion on Monday morning—a modest stock-market rally away from becoming the first bank in the world with a $1 trillion market cap, and a far cry from its $138 billion valuation on December 30, 2005, just before Dimon took over. Last month, JPMorgan posted the highest-ever quarterly profit by a U.S. bank.

So far, membership in the $1 trillion club has been dominated by technology companies: Apple became the first U.S. company to cross the mark in 2018, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, and Meta later following. JPMorgan would be the first bank to join them.

A two-decade playbook

Reaching $1 trillion would be the latest payoff from a playbook that CEO Jamie Dimon has spent two decades refining: maintain enough financial firepower to withstand crises, keep investing when rivals pull back, and use periods of industry turmoil to expand.

That combination has repeatedly allowed JPMorgan to go on offense when competitors were under pressure. Dimon has long emphasized what he calls the bank's "fortress balance sheet," which helped JPMorgan acquire Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual—the largest bank failure in U.S. history—during the 2008 financial crisis, and swoop in to buy First Republic from the FDIC during the regional banking crisis 15 years later.

"Best-in-class ability to invest"

JPMorgan's advantage, however, extends beyond acquisitions.

In an Aug. 13 note, Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo, a veteran bank-industry analyst, wrote that JPMorgan's edge is that it can afford to spend heavily on branches, bankers, and technology—and then use the growth from those investments to spend even more. That "flywheel," Mayo wrote, has helped JPMorgan build leading franchises across consumer banking, investment banking, trading, and wealth management.

Mayo added that this "best-in-class ability to invest for superior growth" could help the bank reach a $2 trillion valuation in the next seven to eight years.

Still, the path to $2 trillion is not guaranteed. Mayo points out that the past decade did not include what he considers a "real" recession, while unusually buoyant markets have lifted revenues across the industry. JPMorgan is also trading near its peak forward earnings multiple since the financial crisis.

That puts more pressure on the bank to keep growing earnings. Mayo estimates that roughly two-thirds of JPMorgan's increase in market value over the past six years came from earnings per share doubling, while only one-third came from the stock commanding a higher multiple.

After Dimon

The biggest test of whether JPMorgan's advantage is truly institutional may come when Dimon leaves.

Dimon, 70, has led JPMorgan as chairman and CEO since 2006, making him the longest-serving chief executive among major U.S. banks, and investors have long attached a "Jamie premium" of 10% to 15% to the bank's shares. Mayo wrote that maintaining JPMorgan's culture and management strength will be critical to sustaining its performance, and he acknowledged the looming succession question.

"CEO succession will likely remain a front-and-center topic," he wrote.

The question of who will succeed Dimon is one of corporate America's longest-running ones, with recently appointed co-presidents Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh seen as the front-runners after Marianne Lake dropped out.

This story was originally published on Fortune.com.