JPMorgan Projects 10% Annual Bitcoin Returns Over the Next 10 to 15 Years, Ahead of US Stocks and Gold
Key Takeaways
- •JPMorgan Asset Management projects Bitcoin will deliver a 10% compound annual return over the next 10 to 15 years, marking the first time the asset has appeared in its long-term capital market assumptions.
- •Bitcoin's projected 55% annualized volatility far exceeds forecasts for US small-cap (21%) and large-cap (18%) stocks, explaining the gap between its 20.9% arithmetic and 10% compound return estimates.
- •Despite the strong return forecast, Bitcoin remains outside JPMorgan's recommended portfolio allocations, leaving future editions of the report to determine whether its role expands.
- •JPMorgan expects a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio to return 7% annually, while adding 30% diversified alternatives could lift returns to 7.5% and improve the Sharpe ratio by 21%.
- •The report forecasts global aggregate bonds to return 5.3%, the highest in two decades, and projects developed-market equities to outperform emerging-market stocks for the first time in its history.
JPMorgan Asset Management projects Bitcoin will deliver a 10% compound annual return over the next 10 to 15 years, placing the crypto asset ahead of traditional asset classes in the firm's long-term return forecasts.
The estimate appears in JPMorgan's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, an annual portfolio-planning framework that projects returns, volatility, and correlations for more than 200 asset classes and strategies over a 10- to 15-year horizon to help investors make long-term allocation decisions.
The inclusion of Bitcoin in the framework drew a public reaction from Matt Hougan, who wrote on X:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade. pic.twitter.com/TuOuH51l3c
Under the 2027 assumptions, US REITs are projected to return 8.2%, US small-cap stocks 7.7%, US large-cap stocks 7.5%, and gold5.5%, while cash trails at 3.2%. Despite the projection, Bitcoin remains outside the firm's main portfolio framework.
The outlook also assigns Bitcoin an arithmetic return of 20.9%, substantially above its compound-return estimate. That gap reflects the impact of volatility, which causes arithmetic averages to overstate the growth actually compounded over time: JPMorgan projects Bitcoin's annualized volatility at 55%, well above the levels forecast for the other listed asset classes. US small-cap stocks carry projected volatility of 21%, while large-cap stocks stand at 18%, according to the report.
The forecasts highlight a trade-off between potential returns and price stability. Bitcoin's stronger headline return forecast therefore comes with substantially greater risk, making risk-adjusted performance an important consideration when comparing it with traditional investments.
This is the first time JPMorgan has set out a range of Bitcoin return assumptions in its long-term forecasts, even as it excludes the crypto asset from its recommended portfolio allocations. For digital-asset watchers, the update places Bitcoin inside the firm's formal planning toolkit for the first time, and future annual editions of the assumptions will show whether its role extends beyond forecasting into recommended allocations. The firm expects economic nationalism, technological change, and shifts in domestic investment to shape markets, with geopolitical tensions and government deficits posing risks to inflation stability.
JPMorgan Sees AI Gains Lifting Stock and Bond Portfolio Returns
In the same report, JPMorgan Asset Management expects a traditional portfolio split between 60% stocks and 40% bonds to generate annual returns of 7% over the next 10 to 15 years, supported by AI investment, stronger corporate profits, and higher bond yields. The 2027 long-term capital market outlook also points to greater diversification opportunities as correlations between stocks and bonds rise.
Allocating 30% of a portfolio to diversified alternative investments could lift projected annual returns to 7.5% and improve the Sharpe ratio, a standard measure of return per unit of risk, by 21% compared with a conventional 60/40 portfolio, according to the firm.
The outlook sees AI adoption and investment boosting productivity and growth over the coming years, offsetting some of the pressure from demographic and labor constraints. JPMorgan projects total factor productivity growth — the portion of economic output gains not explained by labor or capital inputs — to increase by 50% to 120 basis points, with US real GDP growth reaching 2.1% and developed-world nominal growth reaching 4.2%.
US large-cap equities receive an 80-basis-point upgrade to a 7.5% expected return, reflecting profit margins above 15% and continued technology adoption. Developed-market equities are projected to outperform emerging-market stocks for the first time in the report's history.
Bond return assumptions have risen as higher real yields and rebuilt term premiums — the extra yield investors require to hold longer-dated bonds — improve the income outlook. Global aggregate bonds are forecast to return 5.3%, the highest level in two decades. JPMorgan expects US intermediate Treasuries to return 4.6%, investment-grade credit 6.1%, and high-yield credit 6.7%. Global equities are projected to return 7.5% in US dollar terms, while emerging-market equities are forecast at 7.1%.
