Daily Market Preview: US Job Openings Report and US-Iran Developments in Focus
Key Takeaways
- •European releases were limited to secondary data, making a limited impact on expectations for European Central Bank policy.
- •Attention remained focused on US-Iran tensions, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed despite reports of possible progress toward reopening it.
- •June US JOLTS job openings fell to 7.359 million, below both the estimate and the previous month.
- •US June factory orders declined 0.3%, contrasting with expectations for a 0.2% increase.
- •The S&P 500 traded at a new record high while the Nasdaq rose but faced technical resistance.
European Session
The European session features a light economic calendar, with only secondary-tier data releases scheduled — including Spanish employment change figures and Italian retail sales data. These indicators are unlikely to influence European Central Bank policy expectations, meaning market reaction should remain limited.
Investor attention continues to center on US-Iran developments. Risk sentiment has held positive momentum after President Trump called off planned military strikes over the weekend. On the Iranian side, officials continue to deny ongoing talks with the United States as well as reports of a deal, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The Strait is one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints, with roughly a fifth of global petroleum consumption typically passing through it, so any move toward reopening carries significant implications for energy markets.
American Session
The key data release in the American session is the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for June, which is expected to show 7.453 million open positions, down from 7.594 million in the prior reading. Given the Federal Reserve's current focus on inflation, the report is unlikely to shift policy expectations, and the market response is expected to be muted. The actual print came in at 7.359 million, below both the estimate and the prior month, reinforcing the broader trend of gradually easing labor demand.
The US labor market has been gradually strengthening since the beginning of the year, as uncertainty surrounding the 2025 tariffs faded and Federal Reserve rate cuts helped support business sentiment. Separately, June factory orders fell 0.3% against an expected 0.2% gain, a soft print that adds to the picture of uneven growth across the manufacturing sector.
Market Overview — Key Headlines
- Canadian manufacturing PMI hits a four-year high
- Rubio: There's been progress on reopening the Strait. Nothing final but hoping an agreement will happen very shortly
- JOLTs job openings came in at 7.359M vs. 7.400M estimate — lower than the prior month
- US June factory orders: -0.3% vs. +0.2% expected
- The S&P 500 is trading at a new record high. The Nasdaq is higher but faces technical resistance
- USD/CHF backs off from swing and moving average resistance; sellers remain in control
- Al Arabiya: An announcement on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected
- Bank of America projects AI capital expenditure to rise nearly 50% by 2027
- Fed's Paulson: For me, the vote was not a close call
- US International Trade balance for June: -$73.3B vs. -$73.0B estimate
Source: ForexLive / InvestingLive
