Florida has been a reliably Republican state for years, but early indicators have suggested that the gubernatorial election between Democrat David Jolly and Republican Byron Donalds could be closer than pundits initially expected. New survey data is now reinforcing that impression. The matchup being tested is still hypothetical at this stage: both men are identified as front-runners for their parties' nominations rather than confirmed nominees, so the survey measures a possible general election rather than a settled ballot.

"A recent poll shows Democratic front-runner David Jolly overperforming on a hypothetical General Election ballot against Republican front-runner Byron Donalds," reported Janelle Irwin Taylor of The Miami Times on Thursday. "The Change Research poll, taken June 11-14 among 1,273 voters (1,015 of whom said they are likely to vote in this year's elections), found Jolly with a 5-percentage-point advantage after offering biographical information about both candidates."

Taylor cautioned that the survey's methodology has limits. "The poll doesn't necessarily reflect a final vote, assuming the General Election ballot for Governor includes Donalds and Jolly. Its numbers rely on first providing respondents with information about each candidate that, even though the information is pulled from public talking points, could skew perception." In other words, the 5-point margin gauges how likely voters respond once given information about both candidates — a snapshot of informed perception rather than a settled reading of the electorate.

Donalds has been a controversial candidate from the beginning, and not merely because of his far-right positions. In August, a Florida voter admitted to CNN's Steve Contorno that he could not bring himself to back Donalds because of his refusal to participate in the gubernatorial debates.

"I think Byron Donalds is going to win," the man said. "I think he's going to make a good governor. But I had to go with my gut." Yet he added that Donalds ducking the debate "just, it just bugged me."

Statewide debates are among the few settings where voters can directly compare candidates for governor before an election, and this voter's comments show the absence carried weight even with someone inclined to view Donalds favorably.

Donalds has also been accused of unethical behavior in connection with his stock trading, according to the Campaign Legal Center. In 2024, the nonpartisan group announced that it had filed a complaint with the Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE) — the body that reviews ethics allegations against members of the U.S. House — urging it to investigate Representative Byron Donalds of Florida "for failing to disclose over 100 stock trades he made that totaled up to $1.6 million, which represents a violation of the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act." The complaint centers on disclosure failures rather than the trades themselves.

"This egregious violation emphasizes the urgent need for Congress to pass the bipartisan Ending Trading and Holdings in Congressional Stocks (ETHICS) Act to further limit violations of this nature," the organization stated.

The group added: "Lawmakers must file Periodic Transaction Reports (PTRs) within 45 days of trading any stock that exceeds $1,000 or risk facing penalties. While Rep. Donalds and his spouse made 108 stock trades between 2022 and 2023 valued up to $1.6 million, he failed to file PTRs for any of these transactions. CLC has previously filed complaints against other Members of Congress for committing similar infractions."