Headlines:

No guidance from Jackson Hole?

USD/JPY extends gains as focus turns to Fed Chair Warsh's speech

Gold stays locked in ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?

France Q2 final GDP +0.0% vs +0.2% q/q prelim

France August preliminary CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expected

Spain August preliminary CPI +4.3% vs +4.2% y/y expected

German unemployment rises a little less than expected in August

Month-end fixing to be mildly supportive of the dollar - BofA

Some slight dollar selling likely to be the case for this month-end - Credit Agricole

Markets:

USD little changed

Gold flat at $4,599

European equities higher; S&P 500 futures flat

WTI crude oil up 0.4% to $83.22

US 10-year yields up 1.2 bps to 4.686%

Bitcoin down 0.6% to $79,631

European markets traded in a cautious, subdued tone on Friday as investors waited for Fed Chair Warsh's appearance in Jackson Hole later in the day. The speech, while not expected to deliver much, is still the key risk event for markets to close out the week, particularly after a run of data and policy signals that have left traders looking for confirmation rather than a fresh catalyst.

That anticipation left trading relatively directionless. The US dollar was little changed, with broadly limited moves across major pairs. EUR/USD was flat and holding within a 15-pip range at 1.1645, while USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 159.65. With major central bank messaging still the main driver for rates and FX positioning, the lack of a clear Jackson Hole surprise has kept markets restrained ahead of the speech.

Gold also remained steady, hovering near the $4,600 level. US equity futures were similarly lackluster, with S&P 500 futures unchanged and Nasdaq futures down 0.2%, suggesting traders were reluctant to extend positions before hearing from the Fed chair.

In Europe, equities managed modest gains, with French stocks recovering after a weak showing on Thursday. The DAX also moved back near all-time highs. The move came despite a mixed batch of regional data that did little to shift the broader picture for European growth or inflation.

The day’s data releases included France Q2 final GDP at 0.0% versus 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the preliminary reading. France August preliminary CPI came in at 2.4% year-on-year, matching expectations. Spain’s August preliminary CPI was 4.3% year-on-year, above the 4.2% expected. German unemployment rose a little less than expected in August.

In rates, US 10-year yields were up 1.2 basis points at 4.686%.

Oil prices remained softer as US-Iran tensions continued to simmer. WTI crude oil was down 0.4% on the day at $83.22, after a week in which hopes for de-escalation have so far not been matched by any concrete outcome. Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $79,631.

Month-end flows may also influence trading into the weekend and potentially into Monday, with BofA saying month-end fixing could be mildly supportive of the dollar and Credit Agricole noting that some slight dollar selling is likely at this month-end. That adds another reason for cautious positioning, alongside the market's focus on Jackson Hole and the limited number of fresh, market-moving inputs elsewhere in the session.

With that in mind, traders were left waiting for the Jackson Hole speech before making any meaningful moves.