Is XRP a Good Buy at Current Prices?

$XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger — a blockchain built for fast, low-cost cross-border payments and used in products by the fintech company Ripple — was trading at $1.0662 on the Bitstamp daily chart as of 3 August, down 1.75% on the session after opening at $1.0858 and reaching an intraday low of $1.0618. That puts the token roughly 43% lower on the year and about 70% below last summer's high near $3.65. Any discussion of buying $XRP at these levels begins from the same point: the asset looks inexpensive relative to 2025, but that has been a losing argument for eight months.

The real question is not whether $XRP appears discounted. It is whether the technical setup and the macro calendar offer buyers anything to work with. Both are sending mixed signals.

$XRP Price Analysis: Technical Structure Remains Weak

The most important line on the chart is the 200-day EMA at $1.39699. Price is 31% below that level, and the average itself is sloping lower. That is a clear sign of an established downtrend, which means every rally since June has occurred inside a bearish structure rather than marking a recovery from it.

Key levels are well defined:

• Resistance: $1.15, then $1.20, then $1.30, with $1.45 and $1.50 marking the May breakdown zone
• Support: $1.00, the level that has been tested repeatedly since late June without giving way

Between those clusters, $XRP has spent the last nine weeks. The June selloff took the token from $1.30 to the dollar in a matter of days. Since then, it has moved mostly between about $1.00 and $1.19, with a pattern of slightly lower highs. That looks more like compression than accumulation unless price proves otherwise.

The 14-day RSI is 46.51, with its signal line at 43.83. Both are below the 50 midpoint. That is not an oversold reading. In June, RSI fell toward 30 and helped produce a bounce. At 46, the market is not stretched in either direction; it is simply lacking momentum.

Did $XRP Break Its Downtrend, or Just Pause?

The one constructive point on the chart is that the descending trendline drawn from the May high near $1.50 has now been broken. That line had capped each rally through June and again in mid-July. By the start of August, price moved above it.

The problem is what happened afterward: little else. A trendline break without expanding volume and a higher high is not a reversal signal. It is only the removal of a constraint. $XRP broke the line and then drifted back toward the middle of its range on a red daily candle.

For the move to matter, buyers need to close the token above $1.15 and then reclaim $1.20. Analysts tracking the same structure have identified that area as the real trigger. BeInCrypto's analysis places the bullish threshold at a three-day close above $1.22, which is roughly 10% above current levels, and says that would likely bring ETF desks back into the market.

Until then, the clearest description of the chart is a range with a firm floor and a heavy ceiling.

Why the $1.00 Level Matters Most

The $1.00 level is the only support that has been clearly proven. There is no major horizontal structure between the dollar and the mid-$0.80s on this timeframe, which means a decisive daily close below $1.00 could open a quick move toward $0.95 and then $0.85.

That is the real asymmetry facing buyers at $1.06. Upside to the first meaningful resistance at $1.15 is about 8%. Downside to the first target below the range is about 20%. The reward-to-risk improves only if the entry is much closer to the dollar, which is why many desks are treating $1.00 to $1.02 as the accumulation zone rather than current spot.

What Macro Forces Are Affecting $XRP in August?

Three broad factors are in play, and none of them are supportive right now.

First, the Federal Reserve has effectively removed itself as a short-term catalyst. The FOMC held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on 29 July, its fifth consecutive hold, in a 9-3 vote with the dissenters favoring a hike rather than a cut. Chair Kevin Warsh again declined to provide forward guidance, leaving September's path uncertain. A restrictive Fed with no cut priced in keeps liquidity tight and leverage expensive, which is a structural headwind for altcoins like $XRP that tend to ampllify broader crypto risk sentiment.

Second, Bitcoin is not providing a meaningful bid. $BTC closed July around $63,000, up roughly 7% for the month, but it is still pressing against a descending trendline from its October 2025 peak, with all major weekly EMAs sloping down above price. Support at $60,000 to $62,000 has held since the June low. $XRP has historically struggled to sustain rallies when Bitcoin is below its own long-term averages, and analysts widely view $BTC holding $60,000 as a prerequisite for any August altcoin strength.

Third, seasonality is poor. August is the flattest month in $XRP's history, with an average return of 0.43%, and the token has closed the month lower for four straight years, its longest active losing streak for any month. Analyst ChartNerd notes that the pattern is worse in US midterm election years: August 2014 fell 5.7%, August 2018 dropped 23%, and August 2022 lost 13.7%, for an average decline of about 14%. 2026 is a midterm year. Seasonality is not a trade signal on its own, but it does argue against expecting a catalyst to appear unexpectedly.

Demand data also matches the cautious tone. According to BeInCrypto, US spot $XRP ETF flows were exactly zero on 10 of July's 17 trading days, with net monthly demand of about $12.4 million against a fund complex holding roughly $997 million. Daily value traded fell about 37% over the month. Institutional desks are not aggressively selling $XRP; they have largely stopped participating.

Does the CLARITY Act Still Matter for $XRP?

Yes — more than for any other major token — but the odds are deteriorating.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would codify $XRP's commodity classification in federal law and move oversight from the SEC to the CFTC. The SEC and CFTC already named $XRP a digital commodity in a joint action on 17 March 2026, but that was interpretive guidance rather than legislation, and a future regulatory shift could reverse it. Pension funds, bank trust desks, and asset managers are waiting for permanence, not interpretation. The distinction matters because XRP's regulatory status has been contested since the SEC's original lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020, a case that cast a multi-year shadow over the token's institutional adoption and remains the primary reason large allocators treat legislative certainty as a precondition for meaningful capital deployment.

The bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on 14 May 2026. It has remained on the Senate floor calendar since 1 June without a scheduled vote. In late July, the Senate formally shelved it to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill and nominations. The Senate returned on 3 August with about five working days before recess on 14 September, and Polymarket odds for 2026 passage have fallen to around 30%.

That is the central tension in the bull and bear cases. Standard Chartered's conditional $8 target depends on full Senate passage plus $4 billion to $8 billion in fresh ETF inflows. Without a floor vote, that target remains theoretical, and the main institutional catalyst for $XRP disappears until at least late 2026, and possibly 2027 given the midterm calendar.

There has been real progress on the technology side. The $XRP Ledger's v3.3.0 release is aimed at institutional onboarding, a validator vote is pending on an amendment package covering batch transactions, confidential transfers, sponsored fees, and permission delegation, and Ripple Swell — Ripple's flagship annual conference that brings together banks, payment providers, and developers — is scheduled for 27 to 29 October in New York. None of that has moved price over the past eight months, which suggests the market is waiting for regulatory clarity before re-rating the asset on fundamentals.

So, Is $XRP a Good Buy at Current Prices?

At $1.06, $XRP looks like a fair buy for a patient position and a poor buy for a short-term trade.

The case for buying is that the downtrend line has been broken, the dollar floor has held through five separate tests, exchange supply is reportedly at a seven-year low, sell volume is thin rather than accelerating, and the CLARITY Act remains a live catalyst that could reprice the asset quickly if it passes. Consensus forecasts cluster around a $1.00 to $1.20 range for August, with a month-end print near $1.10, which suggests the market has a floor.

The case against buying now comes down to reward-to-risk. An entry at $1.06 is about 6% above the level where real support sits, during the weakest month in the token's history, with the 200 EMA still 31% overhead and sloping lower, RSI below its midpoint, ETF flows at zero, and the main catalyst priced at roughly 30% odds while legislative time is running short.

The practical interpretation is straightforward: scale in near $1.00 to $1.02 instead of chasing the current price, treat a daily close below $1.00 as the invalidation point, and require a three-day close above $1.20 to $1.22 before treating any rebound as the start of a trend rather than another lower high. If the Senate schedules a floor vote before recess, that timeline could tighten quickly. If it does not, September is the earliest point at which the narrative may change.