MMI Daily Iron Ore Index Report: Prices Decline Amid Weak Spot Demand and Macro Headwinds (July 31, 2026)
Key Takeaways
- •The DCE main iron ore contract I2609 closed at 715 yuan per ton on July 31, 2026, marking a 3.31% decline from the prior session.
- •Spot prices at Qingdao Port dropped 15–20 yuan per ton as merchants reduced quoting activity and steel mills restricted purchases to rigid, immediate-use requirements.
- •Total iron ore inventory across ten tracked Chinese ports reached 106.92 million tons, up 1.29 million tons month-on-month, with the buildup concentrated in fines and lump ore while pellet stockpiles remained at four-year lows.
- •Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran triggered broad risk-off sentiment in financial markets, contributing to selling pressure across the iron ore futures complex.
- •MMI projects that iron ore prices will likely continue declining in the near term given persistent global market panic and subdued spot demand.
MMI Daily Iron Ore Index Report — July 31, 2026
Chinese iron ore and steelmaking prices — 31/07/2026
Spot Market Performance
The iron ore spot market turned in a lackluster performance on July 31, 2026. The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) main contract I2609 closed at 715 yuan per ton, representing a decline of 3.31% from the previous trading session.
Spot prices at Qingdao Port, one of China's largest iron ore import terminals, fell by 15–20 yuan per ton compared with the prior trading day. China is the world's largest iron ore importer, and port-level pricing at hubs like Qingdao is closely watched as a real-time gauge of raw-material appetite across the country's steel sector. Trading activity was subdued: participating merchants showed a relatively low willingness to quote, while steel mills limited their purchases largely to rigid, immediate-use requirements. The combination of cautious offers and demand-side restraint resulted in generally poor transaction sentiment across the spot market.
Inventory Fundamentals
On the fundamental side, iron ore port inventories continued to display structural divergence. According to data compiled by SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), the total iron ore inventory across ten tracked ports stood at 106.92 million tons, an increase of 1.29 million tons month-on-month. The stockpile accumulation was concentrated primarily in fines and lump ore categories. In contrast, pellet ore inventories remained at four-year lows, underscoring the ongoing divergence within different segments of the iron ore stock landscape. Pellets are a higher-grade input favored in direct-reduction steelmaking processes, and their persistent scarcity reflects supply-side constraints that contrast with the broader buildup in conventional ore grades.
Macro Environment
At the macro level, escalating tensions between the United States and Iran — and their broader spillover effects — triggered panic across wider financial markets. Iron ore futures, as a risk asset, were not insulated from this risk-off sentiment. The resulting selling pressure weighed on the overall iron ore futures complex and contributed to the downward price movement observed during the session.
Near-Term Outlook
Given the prevailing panic sentiment in global markets and soft spot demand, iron ore prices are likely to continue trending lower in the near term.
Source: Metals Market Index (MMI)