When the United States and Israel began relentlessly bombing Iran in the opening days of the war, the most alarming forecasts about the conflict’s economic toll were unsparing: surging oil prices, a worldwide recession, and outright economic catastrophe.

Yet six months into the conflict, the direst of those predictions has not materialized—even though no corner of the global economy has gone untouched.

“So far, the global economy has pulled off the financial equivalent of a ‘Mission Impossible’ scene,” said Michael Ashley Schulman, an investment strategist with Cerity Partners.

Here is how the world economy has weathered the war so far, and who has emerged as its winners and losers.

Wall Street’s Dramatic Reversal

Stock markets despise uncertainty, and the decision by the U.S. and Israel to attack Iran on Feb. 28 delivered it in abundance. Columns of smoke rose over Tehran, frantic Iranians clogged roadways trying to escape, and mounting deaths—including children—made headlines. It was enough to make any investor queasy.

Oil prices surged, and Wall Street began a retreat that stretched into five consecutive losing weeks. The Dow and Nasdaq entered corrections, and the S&P 500 suffered its worst month since 2022.

But a major turnaround has unfolded since the market bottomed in late March. The Dow has gained nearly 19%, the S&P 500 is up almost 22%, and the Nasdaq has surged 27%. If those gains hold through the closing months of 2026, all three indexes would post their fourth consecutive year of gains.

In a July report, the International Monetary Fund said the economy was “being shaped by two major forces, pushing in opposite directions.” While the war has strained growth, enthusiasm over artificial intelligence has offset the drag.

Main Street may be paying more for fuel, food, and travel—but Wall Street, so far, is shrugging it off.

Oil’s Enduring Shock

The war’s most visible economic consequence has been its impact on oil. With tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a crawl, the price of Brent crude climbed from a prewar close of about $72 a barrel to nearly $120 at its peak. Although prices have since eased, they remain roughly 20% above prewar levels.

The strait is one of the world’s most consequential energy chokepoints: it normally carries roughly a fifth of globally traded oil, which is why even partial disruption there ripples through prices worldwide.

Oil prices affect everything from crayons to cosmetics, but they hit people on the move especially hard.

Jet fuel is expected to cost on average 70% more than in 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association. Airlines have responded by raising ticket prices, hiking baggage fees, and slapping on fuel surcharges, while slashing flights or shelving plans for added routes. Lufthansa Group cut 20,000 short-haul flights. Spirit Airlines, already troubled for years, evaporated.

“The likelihood that fuel surcharges are going to be rolled back and airfares are going to be brought down is very low over the next few months,” said Brett House, an economist at Columbia University. “There is less choice for consumers and less competition between airlines, and therefore, less pressure to rein in fare increases.”

A Boon for Clean Power

With tankers at a standstill and fuel prices climbing, the war has strengthened the sales pitch for clean power.

Electric vehicle sales hit records in several parts of the world. In Singapore, year-over-year EV growth reached 110%. In New Zealand, the figure hit 180%. In Colombia, EVs notched a 300% increase.

Worldwide, EVs are projected to account for 29% of total vehicle sales in 2026, according to an International Energy Agency outlook, up from 25% last year. That growth is even more striking considering that the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China, saw declining EV demand.

Countries particularly reliant on Persian Gulf oil have been spurred into action. In Southeast Asia, leaders have expanded renewable energy use and researched deploying nuclear power. In Africa, countries have moved to expand domestic refining and accelerated the installation of solar panels.

Scott Lehmann, a supply chain expert at Sphera, an operational intelligence firm, counts 26 countries and regions that have announced clean energy and electrification measures in response to the war.

“The crisis is forcing investment faster than any policy framework would have,” he said.

The Poorest Pay the Price

For the privileged, the costs brought by war may barely register as a blip. For the poorest, it is a different story.

The Gulf is not only a leader in global oil production but also in fertilizer—it is a major source of the natural gas-based exports that feed global supply—and the war has dealt a heavy blow to farmers. Just as many were making decisions about their crops, fertilizer prices soared, peaking in April at 44% above prewar levels, according to the World Bank’s price index.

In response, some farmers trimmed their fertilizer use, potentially imperiling next year’s harvests. “If you’re reducing your fertilizer usage right now, it’s in a way borrowing against next year’s soil health,” said Arif Gasilov, a natural resources expert with the Gasilov Group consultancy.

The United Nations World Food Programme has warned that tens of millions could be pushed into hunger. In testimony this week, its acting executive director, Carl Skau, said the “suffocation of fertilizer exports” had hit Asia and Africa hard. Higher transportation costs have also hindered the WFP’s own humanitarian operations.

“An oil tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz can mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan,” Skau said. “When oil prices go up, so does the price of flour, rice and vegetables.”

The Trump Family’s Gains

The war has already cost the United States tens of billions of dollars and caused thousands of Iranian casualties. It has shaved an estimated hundreds of billions of dollars from projected global output.

Yet the family of the man at the center of it all—President Donald Trump—has been among the beneficiaries.

Military contractor Powerus, which is about to be taken public by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., won an Air Force contract worth as much as $90 million to supply interceptors to shoot down Iranian drones. The private equity firm 1789 Capital Management, which Don Jr. joined days after his father’s reelection, owns stakes in several other military contractors profiting from the war. One of them, Anduril, won U.S. approval for up to $2 billion in sales of drone interceptors to Kuwait. A second, Elon Musk’s SpaceX, is providing satellite service to guide U.S. drones against Iran. A third—rocket maker Firehawk Defense—won Pentagon contracts for propellants and warheads to replenish dwindling U.S. supplies.

A spokeswoman for 1789 Capital, Alexa Henning, said Don Jr. was not involved in the decision to invest in those companies, so there is no “nefarious connection.”

The president himself has also done well. His investment portfolio, run by outside managers, has scooped up shares of U.S. military suppliers helped by the war, including Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman. Democrats released a report this week saying Trump’s holdings in oil and gas stocks have soared by as much as $15.5 million.

A White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, insisted “there are no conflicts of interest” and that “President Trump only acts in the best interests of the American public.”

Even as Trump’s personal finances have benefited, his political fortunes are another question. The conflict has been unpopular and could weigh on voters as midterm elections approach.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.