Iran and Oman have spent weeks negotiating a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world's daily oil supply transits, and the agreement now taking shape could hand Tehran a significant geopolitical victory.

Under the proposed deal between the two nations situated at opposite ends of the narrow waterway, Iran would gain control over inbound maritime traffic, sources told Reuters.

The United States and other Persian Gulf nations have maintained that the strait must be restored to its prewar conditions, during which vessels operated under full freedom of navigation long underwritten by U.S. naval dominance in the region. However, months of U.S.-Israeli military strikes failed to degrade Iran's capacity to intercept unauthorized ships, leaving Hormuz effectively shut and Gulf oil supplies confined.

Simultaneously, President Donald Trump has repeatedly resisted escalating to full-scale conflict, as U.S. military stockpiles of critical munitions have reportedly dwindled to dangerously low levels and global oil reserves continue to thin.

Progress and Outstanding Issues

Both Iranian officials and Trump have signaled that negotiations to reopen the strait are advancing, with a deal anticipated in the near future. Still, significant details remain unresolved, according to Reuters.

One key question is how to define Iran's control and what role the Islamic Republic would play in managing outbound traffic. Iranian officials have publicly stated that the regime intends to oversee outbound passages as well and would prohibit U.S. and Israeli vessels from transiting the strait.

Another sticking point involves transit fees. Iran is demanding 5% to 7% of cargo value from ships navigating the strait, while Oman has proposed a fee of approximately 3%. The gap between the two positions—potentially worth billions of dollars annually given the volume of cargo transiting Hormuz—remains a central unresolved issue.

Despite these unresolved issues, the framework agreement acknowledges Iran's authority over the waterway. "The concession has already been made regarding some form of control over Hormuz," one source told Reuters.

A Temporary Framework

An Oman-Iran agreement would serve as a temporary measure, creating space for the U.S. and Tehran to resume broader ceasefire negotiations. Oman's foreign ministry and Iran's ambassador to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Iran has warned that Hormuz will not fully reopen until the U.S. honors its obligations under the earlier memorandum of understanding, which include lifting its naval blockade and unfreezing Iranian assets.

Recognizing its strengthened regional position, Iran has cautioned Gulf neighbors that any renewed U.S. military action would provoke retaliation against critical energy infrastructure, sources told Reuters. With reports indicating dwindling supplies of U.S. interceptor missiles, the threat of further Iranian strikes heightens the vulnerability of Gulf states whose oil facilities and desalination plants depend on relative stability.

U.S. Position and Regional Realities

The United States has stated that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz must remain entirely unrestricted. However, Washington is not party to the Oman-Iran discussions.

"Any temporary routes will be without any impediments—meaning no approvals or permissions and no tolls or charges," a U.S. official told the Washington Post. "The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway, and no party controls the lanes or the ability to transit through them."

Regardless of any formal recognition, Iran has already demonstrated its capacity to damage commercial tankers and regional oil infrastructure, establishing de facto control over the passage.

Even Gulf officials have conceded that a temporary deal acknowledging Iran's authority may represent the most pragmatic option available, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, Gulf states are racing to expand pipeline capacity to circumvent the strait, a move that would gradually erode Iran's leverage over oil markets. Saudi Arabia and the UAE already operate pipelines that bypass Hormuz, but their throughput remains insufficient to fully replace seaborne exports through the strait.

In the short term, however, the U.S. may have little choice but to tacitly accept Tehran's consolidation of control, according to Gregory Brew, an Iran expert and senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.

"[The] U.S. accepting Iranian control of the strait without explicitly acknowledging that control seems a likely endgame here," he posted on X on Thursday.