Iran has effectively dismissed expectations of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, instead laying out a sweeping set of conditions that would require the United States to fundamentally alter its policy toward Tehran.

In a statement issued by Mohammad Baqer Zolghadr, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Tehran declared that the strait would remain closed until Washington ends what Iran described as its hostile behavior. The six demands include: an end to U.S. threats and military action; a permanent cessation of hostilities; withdrawal of U.S. naval and air forces from the vicinity of Iran; compensation for war damages; sanctions relief; and the release of frozen Iranian assets.

The statement carries particular significance because it suggests that the widely discussed U.S.–Iran draft agreement does not, at least from Tehran's perspective, constitute a deal to reopen Hormuz. Any agreement would ultimately require approval from Iran's Supreme National Security Council, the body that sets national security policy under the supervision of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Shipping data reflects continued disruption. Only 33 vessels transited Hormuz from Monday through Thursday, down from 50 during the same period the previous week, while just six crude tankers have reportedly cleared the strait outbound so far this week. The decline persists despite earlier expectations that Iran and Oman were nearing an arrangement to govern a shipping corridor through the strait. Under normal conditions, Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global oil consumption, making it the world's most critical energy transit chokepoint.

That uncertainty has kept energy markets on edge. Iran has also been considering restrictions on U.S. and Israeli vessels, while previous proposals for transit fees have introduced an additional layer of complexity. The European Union has already accused Iran's IRGC Navy of enforcing a screening and toll system for vessels transiting the strait.

Washington, however, is presenting a markedly more optimistic outlook. Vice President JD Vance said the United States expects oil and gas flows from the Gulf to eventually return to pre-war levels. He also said Iran had informed Washington that it had no plans to impose tolls, though he acknowledged that the U.S. does not fully trust Tehran's assurances.

JD Vance on Iran: You see some people within the Iranian system talk about tolling. The Iranians have told us they have no plans to toll the Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/34AneiClu2 — Clash Report (@clashreport) August 8, 2026

The result is that the market now confronts two starkly different interpretations of the same set of negotiations. Washington is discussing the restoration of normal energy flows, while Tehran is demanding major political, military, and financial concessions before it agrees to reopen Hormuz. The gap between these positions underscores the structural challenge of any Hormuz arrangement: the strait is not only a commercial shipping lane but also a lever of Iranian strategic leverage, and any durable resolution would require reconciling deeply opposed security frameworks.

For oil traders, the central question is therefore no longer simply whether talks are underway, but whether the two sides are in fact negotiating toward the same outcome.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com