Iran's Leaders Signal They Are Running Out of Time as Economy Crumbles Ahead of Trump's Next Sanctions Onslaught
Key Takeaways
- •Central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati publicly acknowledged that the U.S. blockade has halted Iran's oil exports and that frozen foreign exchange reserves remain inaccessible.
- •Iran's economy is under severe strain, with inflation above 80%, the rial losing 30% of its value this year, the IMF forecasting a 6.1% contraction, and over 1 million jobs lost by late May.
- •The United Arab Emirates imposed a total embargo on trade and financial transactions with Iran this week, severing a vital lifeline from one of Iran's largest trading partners.
- •Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reshuffled Iran's leadership to elevate hardliners who favor renewed war over another ceasefire and a shift toward a more offensive military posture.
- •Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the planned U.S. measures would include secondary sanctions threatening third parties that continue doing business with Iran.

A widening rift inside Iran's leadership has grown markedly sharper in recent days, exposing mounting impatience with the current stalemate as the economy continues to crumble.
Moderate officials in particular have voiced anxiety over the hardliners' aggressive military-first approach, signaling that time is running out to secure economic relief while the United States and Iran remain in limbo with no sign of diplomatic progress.
"No matter how strong we are militarily, if the people are hungry and we do not have financial circulation, economic growth and domestic production, we will not endure," parliamentary speaker and Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said during a visit to Iraq on Friday.
In another swipe at Iran's hawks, he added: "As someone who has experienced war, we understand the true value of peace."
Also on Friday, President Masoud Pezeshkian — elected in 2024 on a platform of reviving engagement with the West, and the official now responsible for Iran's economy — pushed back against hardliner criticism of the ceasefire deal with the United States, insisting it did not represent capitulation. In comments carried by state media, he called for the war to wind down, hinting that Tehran holds leverage it must use sooner rather than later.
"It is better to end it today, as we are in a position of strength and dignity," Pezeshkian said. "The whole world acknowledges our victory and emphasizes that America has attacked our schools, hospitals and infrastructure in violation of all regulations and is hated around the world."
Iran's central bank governor, Abdolnaser Hemmati, admitted on state television this week that the U.S. blockade has prevented Iran from selling its oil, a top source of revenue for the regime.
"It is a reality that we are not exporting oil," Hemmati said. "The Americans have frozen our foreign exchange reserves and do not allow us to access them."
The blockade is also blocking critical products from entering Iran. Compounding the pressure, the United Arab Emirates' decision this week to impose a total embargo on trade and financial transactions with Iran will cut off a vital lifeline. The UAE has long ranked among Iran's largest trading partners and served as a key regional re-export gateway for goods bound for Iranian markets. The deputy head of Iran's Energy Optimisation Organisation has likewise flagged limitations in fuel imports, forcing the industry to significantly tap reserves in recent months.
The stark public remarks contrast with similar concerns previously aired only anonymously about Iran's economy and the damage being inflicted on it by the U.S. naval blockade. The standoff carries stakes far beyond Iran's borders as well: the country sits astride the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil normally passes. Still, some officials had already spoken on the record: Iran's deputy foreign minister has said the economy desperately needs the sanctions relief that a deal with the United States could provide, while the head of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce has warned that the U.S. blockade will have far worse consequences for the economy than the war itself.
The economic toll is already catastrophic. Inflation has soared above 80%, with prices for certain food staples up 100%. The rial, whose collapse triggered nationwide protests late last year, has lost a further 30% of its value this year. In April, the International Monetary Fund said Iran's economy will shrink 6.1% this year — the worst contraction in decades — and a labor ministry official estimated that more than 1 million jobs had been lost by late May.
Experts have cautioned that Iran's repressive regime is unlikely to be swayed by the suffering of ordinary citizens and is prepared to wait out economic hardship longer than the American public can endure high gas prices.
In fact, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei recently reshuffled the country's leadership, elevating hardliners who favor a return to war over another ceasefire deal. An adviser to Khamenei said Iran has shifted its military posture to be more offensive, suggesting preemptive attacks to extract concessions rather than a reactive stance focused on retaliating against U.S. strikes. Brig. Gen. Yadollah Javani, a senior official in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, told state media that "Iran's actions are defensive, although they may also take on an offensive aspect in the future."
Such tough talk comes as the United States has seen its own military options narrow amid depleted inventories of key munitions and readiness concerns among the Navy ships pointed at Iran. President Donald Trump has repeatedly shied away from resuming all-out war, even after Iran crossed his "red line" by killing more U.S. troops.
Instead, he has pivoted to sanctions, recently vowing an "economic D-Day" against Iran and teasing an unprecedented level of economic warfare and isolation. Details of the plan are thin, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated it would entail secondary sanctions on nations and companies that engage with Iran. Secondary sanctions of that kind target third parties rather than Iran itself, threatening foreign banks, firms and governments with loss of access to the U.S. financial system if they keep doing business with Tehran — the same tool Washington used after withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, when it drove Iran's oil exports sharply lower by going after major buyers such as China and India.
"If you insist on doing business with them, then the U.S. Treasury and U.S. government will put its full might and force against you," Bessent told CNBC. "It's time for our allies and the rest of the world to make a decision."
The open questions now are the ones both governments have themselves laid out: the final shape of Trump's sanctions package, whether Washington's allies act on Bessent's ultimatum, and whether Iran's newly elevated hardliners follow through on their declared shift toward a more offensive military posture.
This article is based on reporting originally published by Fortune.