Strongest Revenue Growth in Over 15 Years

Intel's turnaround in 2026 has been one of the more surprising stories in the chip sector. The stock is up 144% year to date, trading in a range of roughly $91.45 to $95.80, and the company has just posted what CEO Lip-Bu Tan described as "the strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years."

The stock opened at $95.80 on Monday and has traded as high as $142.35 over the past year, after touching a 52-week low of $24.05 before the rally took hold.

Q2 revenue came in at $16.13 billion, up 25.2% year over year and well ahead of the $14.43 billion analyst estimate. EPS of $0.42 doubled the consensus of $0.21. Data center revenue climbed 59% year over year, a standout figure in the report, as AI infrastructure buildouts continue to drive spending on servers — a segment where Intel competes with AMD and Nvidia for compute sockets.

Intel has set Q3 2026 EPS guidance at $0.38. Analysts currently forecast full-year 2026 EPS of $1.01, with the 2027 consensus at $2.04, up from $1.51 just 90 days ago. Over the past 30 days, analysts raised FY26 EPS estimates 32 times with zero cuts.

Analyst Ratings Stay Cautious Despite Strong Numbers

The consensus rating remains "Hold" with an average price target of $107.01. Ratings break down as 1 strong buy, 15 buy, 31 hold, and 3 sell.

Mizuho cut its target from $109 to $92, citing weaker PC demand and margin pressure. Stifel Nicolaus also trimmed its target from $120 to $110 while keeping a hold rating. On the bullish side, Citigroup upgraded Intel to buy, HSBC and Seaport Research Partners both reiterated buy ratings, and Global Equities Research set a $200 price target on the stock, citing Intel's role in CPU-to-GPU ratios in AI clusters.

On the manufacturing front, Intel 18A chip yields are running approximately 25% above internal targets set in March — a key sign of progress for the advanced node that underpins Intel's effort to compete with TSMC at the leading edge of process technology. Tan also described Xeon 6 as "one of the fastest ramping products in Intel history" and pointed to an ASIC opportunity with a total addressable market of over $100 billion.

Insider and Institutional Activity

CEO Tan bought 105,263 INTC shares on August 11 at $95 per share, a transaction totaling just under $10 million. The purchase brought his total holding to 1,314,669 shares. Insiders are net buyers across five recent transactions. Open-market purchases by a CEO are generally tracked closely as a signal of management confidence, since executives buying with their own funds stands in contrast to compensation-driven selling.

The institutional picture is mixed. RPg Family Wealth Advisory cut its Intel position by 41.6% in Q2, selling 114,310 units but retaining 160,779 shares valued at $22.45 million — Intel remains the firm's third-largest holding. Meanwhile, GTS Securities increased its stake by 559% in Q2, and Headlands Technologies grew its position by 322.5%. Institutional investors collectively own 64.53% of Intel.

The Bear Case Still Has Teeth

Intel Foundry posted an operating loss of $2.1 billion in Q2, and external foundry revenue was only $293 million. That gap underscores the scale of the challenge in building a merchant foundry business that can win outside customers away from established competitors. A $12.53 billion non-cash charge on CHIPS Act escrow dragged GAAP results into the red, giving Intel a negative net margin of 19.79%.

PC demand is expected to fall by low double digits for all of 2026 due to memory pricing, which remains a headwind for Intel's core business.

The stock carries a 50-day moving average of $100.45 and a 200-day moving average of $88.20, with a market cap of $483.22 billion. With the shares trading below their 50-day average, the coming quarters — including foundry customer announcements, 18A production ramps, and whether the pace of analyst estimate revisions continues — will show whether the turnaround's momentum holds.