Intel Corp. (INTC) shares closed at $95.53 ahead of the company's third-quarter earnings report, which is due after the closing bell on Thursday. The stock has dropped 32% from its June 22 record high but remains up roughly 159% since the start of the year, and it has been on a volatile ride in recent months. Here is a look at what analysts and options markets expect from the print.

Options traders see a big move coming. Current pricing suggests a swing of up to about 8% by the end of the week — enough to push the stock as high as $103 or drag it below $88. That spans a trading range of roughly $88 to $103 by week's end. Options activity is a staple gauge around earnings because it captures the size of the move traders are positioning for ahead of a scheduled catalyst.

Analysts have set a clear bar for the quarter. FactSet polling points to adjusted earnings of 41 cents a share, up from 23 cents a year ago, while Visible Alpha's estimate is slightly lower at 39 cents. Revenue is forecast to grow about 20% to 21% from last year, with FactSet projecting $16.5 billion and Visible Alpha $16.41 billion. Growth in the data-center and AI segment is seen as the main driver of the expected gains, and the forecasts imply meaningful year-over-year improvement in both profit and revenue. Those consensus figures are the yardstick Thursday's actual results will be measured against.

What Wall Street Expects

BofA Securities believes Intel will top estimates and raise its guidance. Analyst Vivek Arya says average selling prices for central processing units, or CPUs, are rising. BofA rates the stock a Buy with a $145 price target.

According to Arya, Intel stands to gain from steady demand for the CPUs that power AI servers, with an improving supply chain providing additional support. The firm's view is that CPUs are better suited to some AI tasks than graphics processing units, which dominate model training — a distinction that underpins the firm's bullish stance on the stock.

Not everyone is as upbeat. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri kept a Neutral rating on the stock and cut his price target to $103 from $112, though he said the setup on the top line "remains quite strong."

BofA did flag one concern. Investors may question whether AI demand can support both higher unit sales and higher selling prices over time — a question that could color how the market reads the results.

Analysts are split overall. Of the 10 tracked by Visible Alpha, four rate Intel a Buy, five are neutral and one recommends selling. The average price target of $117 implies about 22% upside from Wednesday's close — well below BofA's more bullish $145 target. The gap between the street-wide average and the most bullish target captures how differently analysts are weighing the same quarter.

Foundry and Musk in Focus

The earnings numbers are only part of the story. Intel is trying to kick-start its foundry business and win chip-manufacturing customers — building chips designed by other companies — an effort that puts it in direct competition with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM).

Arcuri expects more progress on Intel's EMIB-T chip packaging and its 14A manufacturing process, both of which are seen as key to the foundry's competitiveness. Investors will be listening for updates on both fronts — details that would give a tangible read on the foundry push.

Elon Musk may also come up on the call. Intel is working with Tesla and SpaceX on the Terafab AI chip venture. Last week, Musk floated what he called "significant potential breakthroughs in chip fabrication."

Earlier this month, Intel stock slid after Musk signaled he was in talks with TSMC to help run Terafab. Worries about client spending and Intel's fundraising plans have also weighed on the stock in recent months. Given how shares have reacted to Terafab headlines, any additional detail on the venture's structure, funding or partners will be another item to watch once the call begins.

Intel stock was up about 1.9% on Thursday ahead of the report, which the company is set to release after the close.