A fresh inflation report from President Donald Trump's own administration has undercut of his central campaign claims just weeks before the midterm elections, showing consumer prices rising faster than economists projected.

Less than a week after the president declared that "prices are coming down very fast," new figures showed inflation climbing again. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index — the government's monthly gauge of the average change in prices across a basket of everyday goods and services — rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, up from 3.4% in August and exceeding the 3.6% increase economists had anticipated. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.6%, up from 0.4% the previous month.

The September report is the final inflation reading before voters head to the polls on November 3, when every House seat and roughly one-third of the Senate will be on the ballot, and it presents a new challenge for Trump and congressional Republicans, who are battling to hold their majority in Congress and convince voters that the economy is on solid footing.

Gasoline drove much of the increase, surging 9.1% in a single month and standing 34.2% higher than a year earlier. In total, energy costs climbed 5.2% for the month and 20.4% annually, according to Labor Department figures.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices to give a clearer read on underlying price trends, rose to 2.6% annually from 2.4%, while shelter costs — the largest single component of the index — increased 0.4% in September. Airfares, used cars, and recreation also became more expensive, though food prices were flat for the month, with grocery prices edging slightly lower.

The figures complicate the rhetoric Trump has deployed on the campaign trail. At the G7 summit in June, he claimed that the United States has "the strongest economy we've ever had" and dismissed affordability as a "fake made up by the Democrats." At a Pennsylvania rally in December 2025, he likewise called affordability a hoax. Amid voter backlash, however, he has toned down that language at recent campaign appearances.

Polling has consistently shown that the prices of everyday goods weigh heavily on Americans. A CBS News poll released earlier this month found that nine in 10 Americans said prices are the No. 1 factor in determining their view of the American economy. The gap between promises and pocketbooks is also widening: families are spending more on essentials while their incomes struggle to keep pace. Per an MS Now report, the price of goods has been outpacing workers' salaries for the last five months.

Politically, the timing could hardly be worse. With fewer than three weeks until Election Day, Trump is working to reassure voters about the economy, but the next CPI report will not arrive until Nov. 10 — a week after voting concludes. The September figures will therefore be the last official look at consumer inflation voters receive before deciding who will control Congress.

This article originally appeared on Alternet.