The Senate impeachment court's decision to lower the voting threshold for convicting Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio could make accountability procedurally possible, but analysts said restoring investor confidence will require credible anti-corruption measures and stronger oversight of public spending.

"Excluding senators who legally cannot participate can make accountability procedurally workable," Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, an economics professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, told BusinessWorld in a text message. "The key issue is that the voting threshold should reflect the judges actually capable of exercising their constitutional function, while preserving due process and legitimacy," he added.

The Senate, sitting as an impeachment court, ruled last week that only senator-judges able to take part when the verdict is rendered would be counted in determining the two-thirds majority required for conviction. The ruling replaced an earlier interpretation that required 16 votes based on the chamber's full 24-member composition. If 20 senator-judges remain eligible to participate, conviction would require 14 votes. The two-thirds requirement is set by the Constitution, and a conviction carries the only penalties it allows in impeachment cases — removal from office and disqualification from holding any office under the Republic.

Ma. Ella C. Oplas, an economics professor at De La Salle University, said the conduct of the proceedings will be just as important as the adjusted voting requirement. Senators' public conduct, she told BusinessWorld via Facebook Messenger, offers insight into their decision-making and could already be influencing investment sentiment.

Flood Control Scandal's Economic Toll

Mr. Peña-Reyes said the flood control scandal illustrates the economic consequences of weak governance, citing project delays, disrupted public spending and their effects on growth.

Thousands of flood control projects worth more than P545 billion have come under scrutiny over allegations of substandard construction, overpricing and nonimplementation. Flood control carries particularly high stakes in the Philippines, where typhoons and seasonal monsoon rains make the performance of these projects a perennial public concern.

The scandal has also led to high-profile arrests. Senator Jose P. Ejercito Estrada, Jr., widely known as Jinggoy Estrada, was arrested on June 1 in connection with a plunder case involving alleged kickbacks from flood control projects. Former Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez was served an arrest warrant on Sept. 7 in connection with a separate P7.4-billion plunder case. He has pleaded not guilty.

Ms. Oplas said the arrests had done little to restore the government's credibility, noting that some Filipinos viewed Mr. Romualdez's arrest as just for show. Prolonged impeachment proceedings, she warned, risk reinforcing perceptions that political considerations influence the country's institutions.

Investors would take the government's anti-corruption campaign more seriously if accountability extended to powerful public officials and resulted in convictions, she added.

"Not just the investors, but the demoralized Filipinos," Ms. Oplas said. "We want to see results [of this impeachment trial] because we wasted millions of pesos for these theatrics. We need 'a big fish' to be convicted and sent to jail to restore our belief in justice and the government."

While the trial addresses accountability, she added, its prolonged proceedings also carry economic costs by consuming time and resources that could be devoted to other priorities.

Competing Legislative Priorities

The impeachment trial is unfolding as the Senate discusses the proposed 2027 national budget, regular legislative business and the work of its Ad Hoc Committee on Reinvigorating Investment and Sustainable Economic Growth (RISE).

The committee's first meeting identified corruption as a major economic concern, with Senate President Sherwin T. Gatchalian presenting estimates of P2.7 trillion in actual and opportunity losses attributed to corruption and inflation.

"The findings of the Senate RISE committee tell us a stark reality: Corruption isn't just an ethical issue; it is an economic crisis," Dennis C. Coronacion, chairman of the University of Santo Tomas Department of Political Science, said via Messenger. "When we lose P2.75 trillion in just one year to corruption and inflation, we are seeing the direct erasure of our economic potential. The most glaring example is how it paralyzes infrastructure and drives away foreign investors who refuse to pay a corruption tax."

Mr. Peña-Reyes said the 2027 budget offers the government an opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to fiscal discipline and accountability.

"The national budget is where the government's priorities become measurable," he said. "Transparent allocations, competitive procurement, realistic project costs and rigorous implementation monitoring can demonstrate that public money is producing public value."

Mr. Coronacion warned that the trial could leave limited time for legislative work addressing structural economic problems, even with adjustments to the Senate calendar. The Senate has scheduled whole-day impeachment proceedings for Oct. 1 and 2, Oct. 5 to 9 and Oct. 12 to 15.

"It is not enough to just multi-task," he said. "The Senate must ensure that the intense scrutiny applied to the abuse of public funds during the impeachment trial is simultaneously translated into institutional reforms in the 2027 budget."

Mr. Peña-Reyes said a functioning and independent justice system would reinforce such reforms and strengthen the government's credibility among investors.

Mr. Coronacion said political disputes should not displace the economic agenda, warning that investment, employment and measures to contain inflation could suffer if structural reforms were neglected.

Reporting by Francessca S. Abalos; originally published by BusinessWorld.